2023 NCAA Tournament odds picks predictions best upset bets best bets underdogs

March Madness: Friday’s best NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 underdog upset pick and prediction

Assessing Friday’s NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 betting odds and lines, tabbing the best underdog upset pick and prediction.

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Week 2 of March Madness is upon us. The madness? That’s mostly the upsets that happen in just about every bracket region every year. After looking at Tipico Sportsbook’s NCAA Tournament odds and lines, here is Friday’s best Sweet 16 upset pick among our expert college basketball picks and predictions.

Friday’s action includes games in the Midwest Region semifinals i Kansas City and the South Region semis i Louisville. The combatants come from chalky and not-so-chalky parts of the brackets. The best upset opportunity lies with a tweener seed in the South.

See Top 25: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll

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Friday’s best Sweet 16 upset pick

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:38 p.m. ET.

SAN DIEGO STATE +7.5 (-110) vs. Alabama – 6:30 p.m. ET.

The 5th-seeded Aztecs — the No. 18 team in the nation — are the champions of the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State has defeated 12-seed Charleston and 13-seed Furman this far in this tournament. It is 12-1 since the beginning of February.

Top-seeded and 2nd-ranked-nationally Alabama presents a different challenge for SDSU. The Aztecs have played 3 other KenPom top-20 teams this season. They registered losses by 17 points to Arizona (Nov. 22), 4 to Arkansas (Nov. 23) and 7 to Saint Mary’s (Dec. 10).

But this is a live underdog. San Diego State is likely due some shooting regression on offense, but its defense is tremendous. Over their last 13 games, the Aztecs have held opponents to 57.5 points per game on a 37.7% mark from the floor.

Alabama is the much younger team in this matchup. The Crimson Tide can be a bit inconsistent, and they often rely a great deal on a significant home-court edge.

Both of these teams defend the perimeter at elite levels. But that should affect Alabama’s offense — one that relies on triples to a great degree — much more than SDSU’s.

Then there is the pace of this matchup, with the Tide playing the rabbit and the Aztecs playing the turtle. Of its last 8 against-the-spread losses, 6 games were against slow-tempo foes.

This game going into the final minute would not be a surprise, and some bettors may want to pair the ATS play with some moneyline (SAN DIEGO STATE +260) action.

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March Madness: Thursday’s best NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 underdog upset pick and prediction

Assessing Thursday’s NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 betting odds and lines, tabbing the best underdog upset pick and prediction.

With a fun and upset-laden 1st week in the books, the NCAA Tournament rolls into week No. 2. After looking at Tipico Sportsbook’s NCAA Tournament odds and lines, here is Thursday’s best Sweet 16 upset pick among our expert college basketball picks and predictions.

Thursday’s 4 Sweet 16 games will be held in Las Vegas at T-Mobile Arena and in New York at Madison Square Garden. The opener in Vegas features the best upset target of the night.

Check out: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll

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Thursday’s best Sweet 16 upset pick

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:14 p.m. ET.

ARKANSAS +4.5 (-118) vs. UConn – 7:15 p.m. ET.

Arkansas went 8-10 in a strong SEC and was ousted in the SEC Tournament after 1 win. When the Razorbacks entered this tourney, they came in having lost 4 of their last 5.

But this is also a UA team that from Jan. 21-Feb. 21 went 7-3 with wins over well-regarded teams like Kentucky and Texas A&M. Over that stretch, the Razorbacks registered a 67-64 loss at Baylor.

Analytic measures for Arkansas are solid. The UA team plays at a fast tempo, with efficient defense and abilities to force turnovers and block shots at standout levels. On offense, the Razorbacks like to get their points in 2-by-2 fashion. When they do get 3, it’s likely on an and-1; Arkansas is not a frequent launcher of triples (348th NCAA-I in frequency of 3-point attempts). Nor should it be: UA is shooting just 31.3% from distance.

UConn does shoot a lot of 3s. If the Huskies have a great night from beyond the arc, they’ll win and cover. But Arkansas is a top-25 squad in defending the perimeter. Over their last 9 games, the Razorbacks have held foes to a 25% mark from 3-point range. In a neutral-site contest, the contrasting-offensive-styles battle can often sway toward the side getting its buckets at the rim on the blocks.

UConn should have the edge on the boards, but the Huskies can be loose with the basketball. If Arkansas can stay on a roll in forcing turnovers, Connecticut can be had in the transition game. UA is 6-1 in its last 7 neutral-site games, and ARKANSAS +4.5 (-118) is solid play Thursday. Some aggressive bettors may want to pair this action with RAZORBACKS (+160) on the moneyline.

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March Madness: Best NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 upset picks and predictions

Analyzing NCAA Tournament betting odds for the Sweet 16, with predictions and picks for the 3 best underdog bets.

The best weekend of the year is over, and now we enter the upcoming weekend with the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. Below, we break down Tipico Sportsbook’s NCAA Tournament odds and lines and list the best Sweet 16 upset bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s expert college basketball picks and predictions.

There are 4 teams that sit outside of the top-6 seeds, No. 9 FAU, No. 15 Princeton, No. 7 Michigan State, and No. 8 Arkansas.

With No. 1 seeds like Kansas and Purdue having already fallen, fans will have all eyes on Houston and Alabama to make sure they don’t go down as well. As with every week of March Madness, expect chaos to ensue.

Check out: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll

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NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 upset picks

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:08 a.m. ET. All game times ET.

FAU (+200) vs. Tennessee – Friday, 9 p.m.

Florida Atlanta ranks No. 22 in Kenpom because of its elite offense which sits 30th in adjusted rating. Its defense is also top 35. Tennessee doesn’t have a top-tier offense, but does have the No. 1-rated defense. The Owls have won 9 straight games and have scored 75 or more in 3 of their last 5.

Florida Atlanta has the offense to make noise. It ranks 50th in the nation in 3-point field-goal percentage (36.7%). It should be able to space the court and knock down shots.

With the Vols still without G Zakai Zeigler, they should start to regress defensively. At this value, back FAU (+200).

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ARKANSAS (+150) vs. UConn – Thursday, 7:15 p.m.

It seems like everyone is already counting Arkansas out. The Razorbacks have a gritty team though, having taken down No. 9 Illinois 73-63 and No. 1 Kansas 72-71. They also have wins over Kentucky and San Diego State this season. The guard play with G Ricky Council IV stepping up, especially against Kansas with 21 points, will matter against G Ryan Nembhard.

UConn is an impressive side, but the Razorbacks play at a pace, ranking 50th in adjusted tempo, that could throw the Huskies off as well. Arkansas has the 51st-best offense and 15th-best defense. It is good enough on both sides of the court to upset the No. 4 seed.

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XAVIER (+160) vs. Texas – Friday, 9:45 p.m.

The Musketeers have what it takes to pull off the upset. Xavier’s 6-foot-11 C Jack Nunge is shooting over 40% from deep for the 1st time in his career this season and can space the floor, forcing C Timmy Allen outside of the paint. Xavier has the 7th-best offense while Texas ranks 15th in offense.

Xavier ranks 5th in 3-point FG percentage (38.9%). It has the ability to run and gun. Scoring against Texas isn’t easy, but the Musketeers offense is a proven side. With wins over UConn, Creighton, Marquette, Providence and many other top-tier programs, it should be able to pull off the upset. Back XAVIER (+160).

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March Madness: Sunday’s best NCAA Tournament second-round upset picks and predictions

Analyzing NCAA Tournament betting odds for Sunday’s second round, with predictions and picks for the 2 best underdog bets.

The first round of March Madness was filled with several thrilling upsets and a couple of underdogs still dancing with 11-seed Pittsburgh and 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson playing Sunday.

Below, we break down Tipico Sportsbook’s NCAA Tournament odds and lines and list Sunday’s best second-round upset bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s expert college basketball picks and predictions.

Check out: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll

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Sunday’s NCAA Tournament upset picks

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:45 a.m. ET. All game times ET; ML = moneyline.

PITTSBURGH ML (+180) vs. Xavier – 12:10 p.m.

The 11th-seeded Panthers, after a First Four victory over Mississippi State, steamrolled 6-seed Iowa State on Friday. Pitt faces a Xavier defense that ranks just 285th in the nation in opponent points per game (74.1) which presents a massive opportunity for the Panthers to steal a trip to the Sweet 16.

The 3rd-seeded Muskateers were on upset alert for much of its 1st-round victory over Kennesaw State on Friday. Its stand-out offense seemingly stalled for a majority of the game and was 2 of 12 from behind the line. Taking away F Jerome Hunter‘s 8-for-11 shooting performance, the Muskies shot just 39% from the field.

If the Panthers are able to create difficulties for Xavier on defense and force sloppy offensive play, they have a very real shot at taking down the 3-seed.

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TCU +4.5 (-110) vs. Gonzaga – 9:40 p.m.

Gonzaga is just 3-11-1 in its last 15 neutral site games and 0-6 ATS in its last 6 NCAA Tournament games, most recently failing to cover on Friday against Grand Canyon. While they has a phenomenal offense, the Bulldogs rank 261st in the NCAA in opponent points per game.

TCU is used to playing tough defenses, ranking 6th in opponent defensive efficiency, per Kenpom’s rankings. Against a Zags defense that has been its weak point, if the Horned Frogs are able to exploit that and slow the Zags offense, they could put them on upset alert.

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March Madness: Saturday’s best NCAA Tournament second-round upset picks and predictions

Analyzing NCAA Tournament betting odds for Saturday’s second round, with predictions and picks for the 3 best underdog bets.

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The first round of March Madness was filled with excitement and quite a few thrilling upsets. Thursday’s winners will play second-round games Saturday, while Friday’s winners will go at it Sunday.

Below, we break down Tipico Sportsbook’s NCAA Tournament odds and lines and list Saturday’s best second-round upset bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s expert college basketball picks and predictions.

There are a couple of unfamiliar faces still dancing with 13th-seeded Furman and No. 15 seed Princeton pulling off impressive upsets. Meanwhile, Duke, which is ranked 16th in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, has won 10 straight games after defeating Oral Roberts Thursday.

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Saturday’s NCAA Tournament upset picks

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:53 a.m. ET. All game times ET; ML = moneyline.

PRINCETON +6.5 (-110) vs. Missouri – 6:10 p.m.

Princeton impressively took down 2nd-seeded Arizona in the first round by limiting the Wildcats to only 55 points in a 4-point win. Could the Tigers, who were 15-point underdogs, advance again with another strong defensive performance?

Missouri averages 79.4 points per game (PPG) to rank 25th in the nation (according to NCAA.com), Arizona entered the NCAA Tournament 5th in the country at 82.7 points per game before facing Princeton. The Tigers are also a plus-6 in rebound margin (tied for 10th in the nation).

If Princeton can make it an ugly, low-scoring game (again) Saturday, it can certainly cover the spread or even beat a Missouri squad that is 346th in rebounds per game (30.33 per game).

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AUBURN +5.5 (-110) vs. Houston – 7:10 p.m.

Houston was largely uninspiring in its 63-52 win over Northern Kentucky in the first round as the Cougars were up only 5 points with a little under 4 minutes remaining — Houston was a 19.5-point favorite.

Cougars star G Marcus Sasser is battling a groin injury and only played 14 minutes — and scored 5 points — before exiting in the first half due to re-aggravating the injury. With their leading scorer out (16.7 PPG), the Cougars struggled to generate much offense, especially from beyond the 3-point line where they made only 4 of 16 attempts.

On the other hand, Auburn found a way to outscore a high-scoring Iowa team Thursday to win 83-75 as a 2.5-point favorite.

Houston is also 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games. This game should be closer than some expect.

PENN STATE ML (+200) vs. Texas – 7:45 p.m.

The 10th-seeded Nittany Lions may have the perfect recipe to upset the 2nd-seeded Longhorns. Texas relies on forcing its opponents into making mistakes (16.21 turnovers forced per game to rank 16th), while Penn State turns the ball over the 4th-fewest times per game (9.0).

Besides limiting mental errors, the Nittany Lions record 10.4 3-pointers per game (tied for 5th most) and convert them at a 38.52% clip (13th). After cruising to a win over No. 7 seed Texas A&M in the first round, Penn State could make things interesting in its upcoming bout with Texas.

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March Madness: Friday’s best NCAA Tournament first-round upset picks and predictions

Analyzing NCAA Tournament betting odds for Friday’s first round, with predictions and picks for the 4 best underdog bets.

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Day 2 of the NCAA Tournament brings 16 more betting opportunities and an upset or two is likely. Below, we break down Tipico Sportsbook’s NCAA Tournament odds and lines and list Friday’s best first-round upset bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s expert college basketball picks and predictions.

Cashing in on those opportunities requires a little bit of in-game luck — a turnover here, a 4th foul there, a momentum-swinging 3-pointer made, or a key free throw on the front end of a 1-and-1. However, we can also do our best to make wise assessments when seeking out these upset possibilities. We’re looking for leverage with value plays where the win is more probable than what the public is seeing.

Below are the 4 best bets for Friday upsets.

See Top 25: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll

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Friday’s NCAA Tournament upset picks

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 12:25 p.m. ET. All game times ET; ML = moneyline.

NC STATE +5.5 (-112) vs. Creighton – 4 p.m.

NC State is likely due some positive regression in its defensive numbers. The Wolfpack went on an 11-2 from Dec. 13-Feb. 4, and the Bluejays had a stretch that saw them go 8-0 from Jan. 14-Feb. 11. However, recent skill indicators point to NC State being closer to getting back to that level than Creighton is.

The Bluejays are 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games against teams playing .600 or better basketball. Both teams have played schedules tilting toward better offensive talent, and the Under is a likable play, so look for the Wolfpack to leverage that kind of game into something quite close down the stretch.

UC SANTA BARBARA +11.5 (-105) vs. Baylor – 1:30 p.m.

UC Santa Barbara swept the regular-season and tournament titles in this season’s Big West Conference play. UCSB sported that conference’s most efficient offense, shooting 49.34% from the field (7th nationally). The Gauchos take care of the ball and frequently get to the free-throw line — and they enter this battle on a 7-game win streak.

Baylor lost its regular-season finale and Big 12 tourney opener — both to Iowa State — and is just 2-4 across its last 6 games.

UCSB was a profitable 20-10-1 ATS this season, and while an outright win is unlikely, this double-digit point spread makes the Gauchos a solid underdog play.

DRAKE (+110 ML) vs. Miami – 7:25 p.m.

This contest is a 12-5 (DU-UM) Midwest Region battle in Albany. A 12-seed has won 53 first-round games since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

Miami may be getting a little too much credit coming out of a weaker-than-usual ACC. The Hurricanes are 2-5 ATS under coach Jim Larrañaga in their last 7 NCAA tourney games.

Drake is 13-1 over their last 14 games and has outscored foes by an average of 14.7 points while shooting 40.9% from distance over that stretch. DU is an experienced bunch and one that plays responsible ball at both ends of the floor. Miami can sometimes struggle against teams that defend the perimeter well, and that’s a Drake strength (30.6% 3-point defense, 28th).

MONTANA STATE +8.5 (-110) vs. Kansas State – 9:40 p.m.

Peg this game as more of a “wild opportunity for a bracket run” than just a 1-time upset. There are some weak spots in the potential 2nd and 3rd games should Montana State advance here.

Kansas State has logged back-to-back flat performances, and the Wildcats are just a few weeks removed from a similar stretch in February. Montana State gets to the line a ton (23.4 free throws per game, 9th), and the Bobcats enter the East Region brackets having won 8 consecutive games.

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March Madness: Best NCAA Tournament first-round upset picks and predictions

Analyzing NCAA Tournament betting odds for the first round, with predictions and picks for the 4 best underdog bets.

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Cinderella stories are always a fun part of the Big Dance — especially so when we have projected those stories alongside underdog wagers. Below, we break down Tipico Sportsbook’s NCAA Tournament odds and lines and list the best first-round upset bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s expert college basketball picks and predictions.

It does not always have to be a bet returning enough to finance a Disney movie. It is just plain fun to do the research, make the right call, and be on that side when millions of hoops viewers are stunned (or even mildly surprised) when upsets roll across all the screens where we take in games and results. Let’s identify 4 such plus-money plays in this week’s first-round games.

See Top 25: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll

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NCAA Tournament first-round upset picks

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:10 a.m. ET. All game times ET.

PENN STATE +2.5 (-102) vs. Texas A&M – Thursday, 7:25 p.m.

Penn State is one of several Big Ten teams not named Purdue worth keeping an eye on this first weekend. Teams from this conference are coming out of a meat-grinder, a high-quality round-robin that has leveled stats more so than the talents behind them.

With a 38.5% mark from 3-point-land (13th), the 10th-seeded Nittany Lions can bomb their way into a dogfight with the No. 7 Aggies. PSU also plays at a slowest-third tempo; some slower teams that have beaten Texas A&M outright include Boise State, Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Wofford.

Penn State does well to defend inside and hang onto the basketball, and those strengths fly in the face of what the Aggies want to do. The Lions are a live dog in this match-up.

DRAKE +2.5 (-112) vs. Miami – Friday, 7:25 p.m.

This contest is a 12-5 (DU-UM) Midwest Region battle in Albany. It features a Miami Hurricanes squad that may be getting a little too much credit coming out of a weaker-than-usual ACC squaring off with a Drake five on a roll. The Bulldogs are 13-1 over their last 14 games and have outscored foes by an average of 14.7 points while shooting 40.9% from distance over that stretch.

DU is an experienced bunch and one that plays responsible ball at both ends of the floor. Miami can sometimes struggle against teams that defend the perimeter well; that’s a Drake strength (30.6% 3-point defense (30th)).

Under coach Jim Larrañaga, the Hurricanes are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 NCAA tourney games.

MONTANA STATE +8.5 (-110) vs. Kansas State – Friday, 9:40 p.m.

It’s cat-scratch fever in this East Region game in Greensboro on Friday. The 14th-seed Bobcats are taking on the No. 3 Wildcats, but peg this as more of a wild opportunity for more of a bracket run than just a 1-time upset. There are some weak spots in the potential 2nd and 3rd games should Montana State advance here.

Kansas State has logged back-to-back flat performances, and the Wildcats are just a few weeks removed from a similar stretch in February. MSU gets to the line a ton (9th most free throws per game nationally), and the Bobcats enter the East Region brackets having won 8 consecutive games.

FURMAN +5.5 (-110) vs. Virginia – Thursday, 12:40 p.m.

Furman — the No. 13 seed in the South Region — is a live wire due to the percentage of buckets it gets at the rim and from 3-point range. The Paladins gave tourney-entrant Penn State a game back in November (73-68 loss on Nov. 17). They swept Southern Conference titles in the regular season and circuit tournament, and they enter the Big Dance with a 14-1 record since Jan. 18.

Virginia can struggle offensively and is shooting just 28.4% from distance since Feb. 7. Under coach Tony Bennett, UVA is 7-13 ATS in NCAA Tournament play.

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March Madness: Thursday’s best NCAA Tournament first-round upset picks and predictions

Analyzing NCAA Tournament betting odds for Thursday’s first round, with predictions and picks for the 4 best underdog bets.

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It is time. March Madness is here, and couple that along with the legalization of sports gambling in many states for their 1st NCAA Tournament, betting will be more prevalent than ever.

Below, we break down Tipico Sportsbook’s NCAA Tournament odds and lines and list Thursday’s best first-round upset bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s expert college basketball picks and predictions.

The Thursday slate includes a pair of No. 1 seeds — the Kansas Jayhawks and Houston Cougars — taking the court.

See Top 25: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll

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Thursday’s NCAA Tournament upset picks

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 8:01 a.m. ET. All game times ET.

CHARLESTON +5.5 (-115) vs. San Diego State – 3:10 p.m.

San Diego State thrived in the Mountain West, but against competitive teams earlier in the season, it didn’t do so well, losing by 17 to Arizona and 4 to Arkansas. The Aztecs also score via a number of players with 6 averaging more than 7 points per game.

The 28-3 Cougars are more top heavy with 2 players averaging 15 or more and 2 topping 12. The depth may not be there, but the scoring is, especially at a high percentage with their top playmakers hitting over 43% of their shots.

Charleston beat Virginia Tech, Davidson and Richmond in the early part of the season. It should compete and at least cover. Taking the 5.5 points is a smart play.

FURMAN +5.5 (-115) vs. Virginia – 12:40 p.m.

Furman ranks 8th in the nation in scoring, 21st in field goal percentage and 10th in 3-point FG attempts per game. It is going to run and gun, and the Cavaliers play the exact opposite style, sitting 280th in 3-point field goal attempts per game.

In March, being able to score, especially for these underdogs, is paramount, and Furman can do that. Virginia lost to high-octane offenses like North Carolina, Miami and Houston during the regular season. Expect it to struggle so back the dog here.

PENN STATE +2.5 (-102) vs. Texas A&M – 9:55 p.m.

The Nittany Lions have a potent offense, and they made their presence felt in the Big Ten Tournament, reaching the final and almost beating the No. 1 seed Purdue Boilermakers.

Penn State has covered 4 straight games and should be able to hold its own here. It took down tourney teams Indiana, Northwestern and Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament. Texas A&M, on the other hand, ended its tournament with a 19-point loss to No. 1 Alabama.

The Nittany Lions also rank 9th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage (38.5%). It can hang with anyone with that on its side, and I would back it to cover here.

MISSOURI +1.5 (-108) vs. Utah State – 1:40 p.m.

No. 10 Utah State is favored over No. 7 Missouri. The Aggies don’t have many quality wins on the season. They didn’t have a great non-conference schedule and went 1-3 to San Diego State and Boise State this season.

Missouri, on the other hand, has wins over No. 4 Tennessee, No. 6 Kentucky, No. 9 Illinois, No. 6 Iowa State and many others. It also beat SEMO, which made the tournament. Ultimately, considering the schedule and the odds, back Missouri to beat Utah State as a slight underdog.

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