The NCAA Tournament first round is in the rear-view mirror, and there was a nice share of madness. In fact, nearly 5,000 entries in USA TODAY’s NCAA Men’s Tournament Survivor Pool were eliminated on Day 1.
Major upsets of No. 2 seed Arizona (by 15th-seeded Princeton) and 4th-seeded Virginia (by 13th-seeded Furman) knocked out a bunch of those entries. Losses by 10th-seeded Utah State (a small favorite vs. 7th-seeded Missouri) and 7th-seeded Texas A&M (a loss to No. 10 seed Penn State) also sent a few people out the door.
Unfortunately, I was also shown the door because of the Arizona loss. My strategy was to play conservative in Round 1 and aim for big points in Round 2 after some expected upsets. However, I never thought in a million years that the undersized Ivy League team in Princeton would take down mighty Arizona, a squad many had winning the whole ball of wax.
As an employee, I’m not eligible to win this NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool contest. While I’m now in the “Loser’s Lounge,” I can still assist those of you who have a shot at the $5K first prize — but I’d understand if you don’t want my advice.
After Day 2 (Friday), 2,988 entries remain out of the 8,107 who signed up.
So, here’s my strategy of how to advance out of Round 2 and eventually win the Men’s Basketball Tournament Survivor Pool.
A rules reminder: Remaining entries are required to pick 2 teams to win outright in the 2nd round — no spread involved. Once you pick a team, it can’t be used again, similar to an NFL survivor pool.
After the 2nd round, the rules require 1 pick per round — 1 in the Sweet 16, 1 in the Elite 8, 1 in the Final Four and then picking the winner of the National Championship Game — if you still have an eligible team to select.
Along with not being able to choose the same team twice, the other tricky rule is that points are earned equal to your winning teams’ seeds. At this point, there are still a lot of points available in the 2nd round and beyond.
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Second-round picks
PICK 1: FURMAN PALADINS (28-7)
Who they play: San Diego State Aztecs (28-6)
When: Saturday, 12:10 p.m. ET (CBS)
Where: Amway Center, Orlando
Let’s get a winner and some big points with a 13 seed in the 1st game of the 2nd round.
Furman, out of the Southern Conference — or SoCon — stunned Virginia 68-67 as a 5-point underdog in Thursday’s 1st round. G JP Pegues‘ 3-pointer with 2.4 seconds remaining completed a comeback from a second-half, 12-point deficit.
Furman, which averaged 82.1 points per game (PPG) entering the tourney, was held to 68 points, but it outscored Virginia 30-6 behind the 3-point line. The Paladins did only shoot 39.3% (22-for-56) from the field, well below their regular-season average of 48.6% (stats from covers.com), but the Cavs featured one of the top defenses in the country — allowing just 60.3 PPG.
The Paladins showed it could make adjustments and it took very good care of the basketball, turning it over just 9 times. They were outrebounded 39-31, which isn’t a surprise against a larger ACC team. The big difference was going 10-for-28 (35.7%) behind the arc, while holding Virginia to 2-for-12 (16.7%) in the same category.
The Paladins were led by F Jalen Slawson, who posted a double-double with 19 points and 10 rebounds to go along with 4 assists, a steal and a blocked shot. G Marcus Foster was good for 14 points, including four 3-pointers, and a pair of blocks. Pegues and G Mike Bothwell added 11 points each.
Fifth-seeded San Diego State is a lot like Virginia. Unlike Furman’s all gas, no brakes offense, the Aztecs are much more methodical. They have scored 67 or fewer points in 6 consecutive outings, going 5-1 straight up, while throwing a blanket on the opposition, allowing just 56.7 PPG. So, it’s no surprise that San Diego State has cashed the Under in 9 straight games and 11 of the past 12.
While Furman is on a 6-game win streak, San Diego State enters on a 5-game win streak. San Diego State covered by a hook as a 5.5-point favorite in a 63-57 opening-round victory vs. No. 12 seed Charleston.
G Matt Bradley (17 points) was the only Aztecs player to score in double digits in the win. Plus, they turned the ball over 14 times, and that simply won’t do against the upstart Paladins.
The Aztecs defense yields just 63.4 PPG (per NCAA.com), so the Paladins will have to take good care of the rock again. Teams should do that anyway, but it’s especially imperative against good defensive teams with an offense that slows the tempo and limits offensive opportunities.
Furman proved it could do so in its upset of Virginia, and San Diego State can definitely be had here.
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PICK 2: AUBURN TIGERS (21-12)
Who they play: Houston Cougars (32-3)
When: Saturday, 7:10 p.m. ET (TBS)
Where: Legacy Arena at BJCC, Birmingham
My plan all along was to take Auburn in this round. The NCAA Tournament, unfairly perhaps, sent Auburn to play in nearby Birmingham despite being a No. 9 seed. That’s a nice, short 110-mile trip for the Tigers and for their throng of raucous fans, too.
With both Auburn, and No. 1 overall Alabama, playing in the night session, ticket prices in Birmingham are among the most-sought and highest-priced for any tourney venue this weekend.
Houston, the top seed in the Midwest, was sluggish in its 63-52 victory over 16th-seeded Northern Kentucky of the Horizon League. The Cougars didn’t come close to covering as 19.5-point favorites. The real issue is G Marcus Sasser, the AAC Player of the Year who suffered a groin injury against Cincinnati in the conference tournament semifinals causing him to miss the title game — a 10-point loss — against Memphis.
Houston coach Kelvin Sampson elected to play Sasser vs. Norther Kentucky rather than rest him against an inferior team, and the result was troublesome for the Cougars’ leading scorer (16.7 points per game).
Groin injuries are super tricky. It doesn’t take much to aggravate them. That’s exactly what happened to Sasser, who played just 14 minutes and scored 5 points before exiting in the 1st half vs. NKU. Sasser didn’t play in the 2nd half as he sat on the bench with his upper leg wrapped.
He said Friday that the decision to play vs. Auburn is his — it’s a pain management thing. With Sasser not 100 percent, the Cougars are prime for the picking.
Auburn was sharp against Iowa in a 1st-round victory as a 2.5-point favorite in an 83-75 triumph. The Tigers shot 46.0% (29-for-63) from the field and 36.4% (8-for-22) from downtown. They were solid at the free-throw line, too, hitting 77.3% (17-for-22), while turning the ball over just 7 times. Six Tigers scored at least 11 points, showing tremendous depth and versatility. F Johni Broome (19 points, 12 rebounds) and G Allen Flanigan (10 points, 10 rebounds) led the way with double-doubles.
This looks like an upset waiting to happen. You can pick up 9 points in the survivor contest by rolling with the Tigers, who will have somewhat of a homecourt advantage … well, except for the Alabama fans likely cheering against them.
Good luck and make sure to check back before the Sweet 16 for the next winning pick!
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