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Which players stood out the most in a look at recent ADP results?
Every fantasy football draft season creates what is known as “average draft position” data (ADP), which gamers can utilize to help find trends and get a feel for current valuation tendencies.
It’s a fair way for novice players to relate positional value and also contrast how other drafters perceive worth vs. other positions. That said, it’s easy to get caught up in the numbers and fixate too much on them.
Don’t become enamored with the raw data, especially if you’re unable to validate the source material. For example, mock drafters may not be as likely to put forth earnest effort and/or could be willing to take wild risks in relation to making picks when that actually count for something.
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Utilizing ADP data as guidelines is fine, but getting wrapped up in strictly adhering to them will get you in trouble. It’s always a positive to know whereabouts players tend to get selected within a few rounds’ margin or to develop a feel for positional runs — such as how many of the safe QB1s or No. 1 tight ends go in the first eight rounds, on average. ADP never should be treated as the be all, end all.
With that out of the way, here’s commentary from the most recent ADP chart from RTSports.com. The data used comes from 12-team, PPR drafts between July 21 to July 27. Players in green are significant movers upward, whereas those highlighted in red have drastically fallen of late.
Breaking down the top players and sleepers for DraftKings and FanDuel for Super Bowl LVII DFS fantasy football.
It is Super Bowl LVII week, and this means there is only one game for our DFS enjoyment. Fortunately, all the major sites offer single-game (and even partial-game) contests, often referred to as Showdowns.
These contests often introduce different strategies compared to regular full-slate DFS contests, so I will break them down for you besides analyzing the individual players in the game.
On DK, you are required to put together a six-man roster for $50k or less, and you must use at least one player from each team. In addition, we must identify one of those six players as your “captain.” They award the captain 1.5x his total output (including potential negative points). This player also costs 1.5x more when you place them in the captain slot, so you have to weigh the value difference of those extra points versus the extra cost.
On FD, they give you more money ($60k) for fewer spots (only five). You still select a Captain (or as they call it an MVP). The biggest difference, however, is your MVP costs are the same as your non-MVPs. There is no penalty for putting a player in that slot. This means that you want the top scorer in your lineup in that slot, regardless of his price.
Much like in regular DFS, you can stack correlative players (QB-WR/TE) or (RB-DEF). The key thing to remember, though, is you need to have at least one player from both teams.
If you believe the game will be one-sided, stack your favored QB along with one of his receiving weapons, plus his RB1, and their defense, and then run it back with a passing game weapon of the opposition.
If you believe this game will be high-scoring and close, then you will probably want to do a stack, including both QBs and at least one receiving option for each team. This will be my favorite strategy this week.
If you feel both teams will struggle to score, then you should use both defenses and one or both kickers.
Captain: Travis Kelce ($15.9k)
Roster: Patrick Mahomes ($11k), Jalen Hurts ($11.2k), Dallas Goedert ($6.4k), Boston Scott ($3k), Justin Watson ($2k)
This lineup gives you both QBs and the elite tight end for each team. It also gives you two TD-dependent depth pieces, one of which, Watson, may see an uptick in playing time due to injuries.
Captain: Jalen Hurts ($16.8k)
Roster: A.J. Brown ($9.2k), DeVonta Smith ($8.6k), Miles Sanders ($7.8k), Jake Elliott ($4.2k), Justin Watson ($2k)
Perhaps you believe that this will be a blowout by Philly (why, I have no idea). This lineup gives you maximum exposure to the four best offensive pieces for Philadelphia, plus their kicker.
Captain: Patrick Mahomes ($16.5k)
Roster: Travis Kelce ($10.6k), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($6.2k), Isiah Pacheco ($7.2k), Harrison Butker ($4k), Kenneth Gainwell ($5k)
Or, maybe you believe Philly made it to the big game via an easy path and now they will be tested by an elite KC offense. This gives you the top options for KC, their kicker, and a red-zone TD threat for the Eagles.
Captain: DeVonta Smith ($12.9k)
Roster: Patrick Mahomes ($11k), Jalen Hurts ($11.2k), Dallas Goedert ($6.4k), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($6.2k), Justin Watson ($2k)
I really like Smith this week, so this would be one of my favorite “shootout” lineups. This lineup also keeps both offenses in play but considers Philly attempting to take Kelce out of the game.
Captain: Philadelphia Eagles defense ($5.4k)
Roster: Kansas City Chiefs defense ($3.4k), Isiah Pacheco (7.2k), Miles Sanders ($7.8k), Jalen Hurts ($11.2k), Patrick Mahomes ($11k)
Both QBs are dealing with various levels of injury. Perhaps you can see both defenses raging passing-game havoc in this one. This still gives you both QBs (who can still gain floor-level points) but also adds both top RBs and gives you credit for sacks and turnovers.
Captain: Quez Watkins ($2.1k)
Roster: Travis Kelce ($10.6k), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($6.2k) or JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5.6k), DeVonta Smith ($8.6k), Jalen Hurts ($11.2k), Patrick Mahomes ($11k)
Unless you go deep, deep diving at captain, it is hard to fit all the stars into your lineup. This at least puts a reasonable depth piece into that slot and gives you both QBs and three of the top four passing-game weapons in this game.
Captain: JuJu Smith-Schuster ($8.4k)
Roster: Patrick Mahomes ($11k) or Jalen Hurts ($11.2k), Travis Kelce ($10.6k), DeVonta Smith ($8.6k), A.J. Brown ($9.2k), Justin Watson ($2k)
One of the few ways to get all four of the top receiving options into the lineup would be like this. You also get your choice of one of the QBs.
MVP: Patrick Mahomes ($17.5k) or Jalen Hurts ($17k)
Roster: Travis Kelce ($14k), Dallas Goedert ($10k), DeVonta Smith ($11.5k), Kadarius Toney ($7k)
Mahomes or Hurts at MVP tied together with two of the top receiving options for each team. This is my favorite way to attack this slate.
MVP: Jalen Hurts ($17k)
Roster: A.J. Brown ($12.5k), DeVonta Smith ($11.5k), Dallas Goedert ($10k), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($9k)
This is your Eagles Voltron stack with a KC run-it-back WR.
MVP: Patrick Mahomes ($17.5k)
Roster: Travis Kelce ($14k), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($9k), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($8k), DeVonta Smith ($11.5k)
As a Chiefs fan, I love this lineup. I just know that it is going to struggle against this pass defense.
MVP: Patrick Mahomes ($17.5k)
Roster: Jalen Hurts ($17k), DeVonta Smith ($11.5k), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($8k), Justin Watson ($5.5k)
Here is a KC leaning lineup that allows you both QBs.
MVP: Jalen Hurts ($17k)
Roster: Patrick Mahomes ($17.5k), DeVonta Smith ($11.5k), Quez Watkins ($6k), Jake Elliott ($8k)
Here is a Philly leaning lineup that allows you both QBs.
Jalen Hurts isn’t listed as injured, but he continues to treat his earlier shoulder injury. This week’s opponent, KC, gives up a lot of yards through the air. That said, they can be both opportunistic and sloppy at the same time. KC’s pass rush is no joke, but the Philly O-line is considerably better than the scrubs that Cincy rolled out there. Even at less than 100%, Hurts remains a scrambling threat. I like him to finish with 200-2 through the air and 40-1 on the ground.
Patrick Mahomes (ankle) survived the conference championship round, and a high-ankle sprain, as Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy came up with a game plan where he was able to successfully operate out of the pocket. Much like Cincy, Philly has solid defensive depth at every level. The biggest difference is that Philly features two elite-level shutdown corners on the outside. Still, the Eagles can be beaten over the middle and that is where Mahomes loves to operate with his salsa-mate Travis Kelce. It may not be pretty, but Mahomes will still reach 300-3 with less than 15 rushing yards.
Miles Sanders surprised me by scoring twice versus the Niners. His YPC was crappy, but with two TDs, no one was complaining. The Chiefs are much easier to run against. He should finish with just under 60 total yards and maybe a score. The reason he may not score is that Philly likes to allow everyone in their backfield to vulture him. Kenneth Gainwell didn’t score last week, but his ending line was actually better than Sanders’, and he looked to be the more explosive back. I expect Gainwell to put up about 45 yards and no TD here. The other threat is Boston Scott, who has stolen a score in two straight playoff games. He feels like more of a TD-dependent dart throw here than a reliable choice.
Isiah Pacheco has once again surpassed Jerick McKinnon as option 1a in the rushing game for KC. Against a stout defensive interior, I expect both to see more targets than carries. Pacheco will finish with roughly 50-1 on the ground and two or three short-yardage receptions. McKinnon will score through the air and could haul in five or six catches for close to 50 total yards. You can ignore both Ronald Jones and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (if he suits up).
DeVonta Smith has actually been more reliable than A.J. Brown in recent weeks. I believe this trend continues here as KC’s secondary remains young and thin but is improving. Smith will score, and both will finish with around 70-80 yards. I could see using Quez Watkins or Zach Pascal as a cheap punt to fill out your roster, but neither should be relied upon as anything more than a flier.
We don’t know who will even be active at WR for KC. If active, JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) is the best bet to lead the WRs in receptions. He will get five or six catches for 50 yards, but I don’t trust him to score, though. Kadarius Toney (ankle, hamstring) is also dinged up, but his skill set makes him a bigger threat to get into the end zone. I don’t like Marquez Valdes-Scantling versus this elite pass defense. That said, if both Toney and Smith-Schuster are out (or limited significantly), you have to consider him. Justin Watson missed the conference championship with an illness. If he plays, he will be a favorite bargain-basement roster filler for me as he always gets one or two deep shots each game. Skyy Moore was forced into a larger role in the previous game. His stats will be minimal if everyone returns.
Dallas Goedert should have an easy go of things in this game. With extra attention devoted to both DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown, Goedert should operate freely and secure 5-50-1. We can ignore Jack Stoll as he does not see enough usage.
Travis Kelce is going to score and post at least eight receptions for 80 yards. He is the safest player on either side of the ball to use as captain/MVP. Noah Gray, Blake Bell, and Jody Fortson can all be minimum-cost roster fillers. Just expect nothing more than the minimum output from any of them as you chase a random TD.
Jake Elliott has been consistent this year, but I expect neither team will be excited to forego TD opportunities for FG chances. That said, with three extra points and a pair of FGs, his nine-point floor is safer than some of the TD-dependent depth WRs/RBs.
Harrison Butker has been clutch this year (especially on long kicks), but he has also had the occasional case of the yips on some shorter tries. In the big game, he will get three extra points and two or three field goal opportunities. At least one of those will be from 50-plus. I will have a lot of exposure to him as a mid-salaried floor piece.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense is a better real-world unit than fantasy defense. They will be limited to just a pair of sacks and a pair of turnovers.
Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs defense has a great pass rush, but this will be a big test for them. I don’t see over four sacks and just a single turnover here.
| Player | DraftKings Captain Salary | DraftKings Regular Salary | FanDuel Salary |
| Jalen Hurts | $16,800 | $11,200 | $17,000 |
| Patrick Mahomes | $16,500 | $11,000 | $17,500 |
| Travis Kelce | $15,900 | $10,600 | $14,000 |
| A.J. Brown | $13,800 | $9,200 | $12,500 |
| DeVonta Smith | $12,900 | $8,600 | $11,500 |
| Miles Sanders | $11,700 | $7,800 | $12,000 |
| Isiah Pacheco | $10,800 | $7,200 | $10,500 |
| Jerick McKinnon | $10,200 | $6,800 | $9,500 |
| Dallas Goedert | $9,600 | $6,400 | $10,000 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | $9,300 | $6,200 | $8,000 |
| Chad Henne | $9,000 | $6,000 | $5,000 |
| Gardner Minshew II | $9,000 | $6,000 | $5,000 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | $8,400 | $5,600 | $9,000 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | $7,500 | $5,000 | $8,500 |
| Kadarius Toney | $6,600 | $4,400 | $7,000 |
| Jake Elliott | $6,300 | $4,200 | $8,000 |
| Harrison Butker | $6,000 | $4,000 | $8,500 |
| Skyy Moore | $5,700 | $3,800 | $6,000 |
| Philadelphia Eagles Defense | $5,400 | $3,600 | $9,000 |
| Kansas City Chiefs Defense | $5,100 | $3,400 | $8,000 |
| Boston Scott | $4,500 | $3,000 | $7,500 |
| Justin Watson | $3,000 | $2,000 | $5,500 |
| Quez Watkins | $2,100 | $1,400 | $6,000 |
| Noah Gray | $1,800 | $1,200 | $5,500 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | $1,500 | $1,000 | $6,500 |
| Zach Pascal | $1,200 | $800 | $5,500 |
| Jack Stoll | $900 | $600 | $5,000 |
| Blake Bell | $600 | $400 | $5,000 |
| Jody Fortson | $300 | $200 | $5,000 |
| Marcus Kemp | $300 | $200 | $5,500 |
| Ronald Jones II | $300 | $200 | $5,000 |
Week 18 fantasy football news, daily lineup tips, and more!
In this episode, Steve and Harley bring you Week 18 DFS pay-ups, stay-aways and value plays. So Huddle up, tune in, and get Blitzed!
The latest risers and fallers heading into the final week of the NFL’s regular season.
I’ve long maintained that the NFL is the best reality show on television and, with one week to play in the regular season, they’ve proved it once again.
The Philadelphia Eagles have had the best record in the league all year, but could fall to the No. 5 seed with a loss. Tom Brady made the playoffs for the 20th time with a win Sunday. With wins next week, Aaron Rodgers and Bill Belichick make it back to the party after being left for dead. Even the Pittsburgh Steelers are still alive as they look to avoid their first losing season in 20 years after a 2-6 start.
No professional sport is able to build drama like the NFL as it remains the most captivating reality show on TV.
Here is the Week 18 Fantasy Football Market Report.
The latest players on the upswing and downswing entering Week 17.
One certainty in the NFL is turnover. Typically, only about half of the division winners repeat, teams that had losing records the previous year become winners, and undervalued fantasy players from those teams become unexpected lineup staples.
Last year, 12 NFL teams won 10 or more games – six in each conference. Of those, only three (Buffalo, Kansas City and Cincinnati) will repeat that feat. The other three (Tennessee, New England and Las Vegas) currently have losing records.
In the NFC, only two teams that had double-digit wins last season (San Francisco and Dallas) are going to repeat. The Green Bay Packers (13-4 in 2021) are 7-8 and on playoff life support. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4 in ’21) are 7-8 and only in the playoff hunt because the NFC South is so bad. The Los Angeles Rams (12-5) and Arizona Cardinals (11-6) have a combined record of 9-21 this year.
When you start your preparation for the 2023 fantasy draft, keep in mind which teams look to be on the upswing but not quite there yet – teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars and Detroit Lions. Given the up-and-down nature of the NFL, they could be in for big things next year and will likely garner more credibility than they had coming into this season – which was almost none.
Here is the Week 17 Fantasy Football Market Report.
Week 17 fantasy football news, daily lineup tips, and more!
In this episode, Steve and Harley bring you B.P.N. NFL news, potential championship landmines to avoid, and DFS pay-ups, stay-aways and value plays. So Huddle up, tune in, and get Blitzed!
The latest key risers and fallers in fantasy football entering Week 16.
We’ve reached the point in the fantasy football season where the biggest decisions need to be made to get closer to a league championship. An epic season can fold like a card table with one decision.
I’ve never been a “ride or die” type fantasy player – you basically play the same lineup every week because you made the biggest investment in them. I’m more on letting matchups pick my lineup with the exception of unbenchable studs. Beyond that, I’m willing to sit a player I invested heavily in on draft day to play a hunch if the matchup is too juicy to pass.
When you roll the dice in the playoffs and hit, you remember it for a couple years. When you bench a guy you’ve been starting all season on a gut feeling and the guy goes off for three touchdowns? That stain lasts forever.
The ride-or-die people have fewer regrets.
Here is the Week 16 Fantasy Football Market Report.
Week 16 fantasy football news, daily lineup tips, and more!
In this episode, Steve and Harley bring you B.P.N. NFL news and an extra Christmas gift in the form of a double slate of DFS pay-ups, stay-aways and value plays. So Huddle up, tune in, and get Blitzed!
The most important risers and fallers heading into Week 15.
When it’s sweltering in July and August, natural complainers yip about the heat. I’m thinking about December and January. In July, you don’t even have a fantasy roster. In December and January, you’re horrified to learn your fast-track offense is playing in Buffalo in January and the weather outside is frightful.
What separates good fantasy owners from really good ones is they take into account holiday season weather in July. When I’m on the clock and I have two players I could go either way on, I will go with the player in the more climate-controlled conditions when it comes to fantasy playoff time.
It stuns me that this isn’t a metric fantasy football management. It’s one-and-done in the playoffs. Don’t wake up Sunday morning and see snowplows on a field and straight flags and be caught unaware. That’s how fantasy seasons die.
I say this because there is currently a “superstorm” making its way across the country. A lot of people will be impacted. By the time it gets to the East Coast, it’s going to be all rain. On Sunday. It could be a lot of rain and, more importantly, a lot of wind – the bane of NFL offenses.
Just sayin’.
Here is the Week 15 Fantasy Football Market Report.
