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The St. Louis Cardinals (61-79) open a weekend series against the Cincinnati Reds (73-69), who are in the middle of a heated Wild Card race. First pitch Friday is set for 6:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ballpark. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cardinals vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Reds lead 4-3
The last place Cardinals won the 1st 2 games against the Atlanta Braves on their current 9-game road trip, but they lost 8-5 on Thursday night.
After dropping 6 of 8 games, the Reds have started to get back on track with wins in 4 of their last 6 contests.
Cardinals at Reds projected starters
LHP Drew Rom vs. LHP Andrew Abbott
Rom (0-2, 7.24 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.90 WHIP, 5.3 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 13 2/3 innings.
- Went 9-6 with a 4.82 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, and 10.9 K/9 in 21 outings (20 starts) in Triple A. In 2 starts with the Cardinals’ Triple-A affiliate following his trade from Baltimore, he allowed 1 ER with 4 BB and 18 K
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 1 K in 7-6 loss to Pittsburgh
Abbott (8-4, 3.22 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 95 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 2-1 win over the Chicago Cubs.
- Home stats: 3-2, 2.66 ERA (50 2/3 IP, 15 ER) with 8.9 K/9 in 8 starts. He has allowed 8 HR in those games (1.4 HR/9) but has been helped greatly by a .198 BABIP
- Faced the Cardinals in June and shut them out for 5 2/3 IP, though it came with 3 BB and 4 K
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Cardinals at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 10:28 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Cardinals +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Reds -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-185) | Reds -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Cardinals at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 7, Cardinals 5
Moneyline
Rom has really struggled with walks this season, which has led to an inflated ERA both at Triple-A and in his small MLB sample. He is sporting a weak 11/8 K/BB with the Cardinals so far, and in this game, he’ll be pitching in a hitter-friendly park against a team with a lot on the line. This is a solid price on the home team so jump on the REDS (-120).
Run line/Against the spread
Abbott has a shiny ERA at home, but his skills haven’t quite supported the excellent results. His offense should give him plenty of support, but the Cardinals have been hitting well lately and should keep it fairly close. We’ll side with the moneyline and PASS on this line.
Over/Under
The Cincinnati bats are lined up for a good day against a young pitcher who has yet to establish himself at the big-league level, and who gets himself into a lot of trouble with shaky control. On the other side, Abbott hasn’t been as good as his ERA would suggest.
The Cardinals have had a very disappointing season, but the offense has come to life lately, as they have scored 38 runs in their last 5 games (7.6 runs per game). When all is said and done, this game should end up real close to the total, but a small play on OVER 10.5 (-110) is the call here.
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