The St. Louis Cardinals (13-25) and Boston Red Sox (22-16) open a 3-game set at Fenway Park Friday. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cardinals vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting between the teams who met in the 2013 World Series; the Red Sox won 2-1 in 2022
After snapping an 8-game losing streak, the Cardinals won 3 in a row before falling 10-4 to the Chicago Cubs Wednesday. The Cards offense has been OK at 11th with 4.56 runs/9 and 9th with a .258 BA. It’s their pitching that has been atrocious at 24th in baseball with a 5.40 ERA from the starters. They are just 6-14 in the last 20 games, but remain just 8 games out in a weak NL Central.
The Red Sox have picked it up of late, winners of 8 of the last 10 games. They’re led by an offense ranked 3rd (5.80) in runs/9, 4th (.269) in BA and 3rd (.789) in OPS. Their starting pitching has been bad, too, ranking 28th with a 6.01 ERA.
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Cardinals at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Adam Wainwright vs. LHP James Paxton
Wainwright (0-0, 7.20 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He has a 1.60 WHIP, 0.0 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 5 innings.
- Last start Saturday vs. Detroit Tigers: 5 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 5 K; only allowed 2 H and 0 ER in 1st 4 IP, but faltered in the 5th.
- Last start vs. Red Sox June 17: 6 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 5 K
Paxton (0-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his 1st start due to a hamstring injury. He has pitched just 21 2/3 IP since 2019 due to injuries with a 6.65 ERA.
- Was 2-3 with a 6.23 ERA in 6 games (5 starts) at Triple-A Worchester with a 1.57 WHIP and 26 K in 21 2/3 IP
- Last start vs. Cardinals came in 2016: 5 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 7 K
Cardinals at Red Sox odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:38 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Cardinals +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Red Sox -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-180) | Red Sox -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 11 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Cardinals at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 7, Cardinals 5
Moneyline
Boston has had St. Louis’ number in the minimal sample size, winning 2 of 3 last year and sweeping a 4-game series in 2017. They are similar teams, but Boston is doing it better with bad starting pitching, and the Red Sox have a better bullpen at 8th with a 3.42 ERA vs. St. Louis’ 16th-ranked pen at 3.88. The Red Sox are 13-7 at home.
Take the RED SOX (-120) at an undervalued number.
Run line/Against the spread
Boston is 22-16 on the RL and 11-9 at home. Six of their last 8 wins have been by multiple runs, and the fact they’re using a pitcher making his 1st start of the year doesn’t scare me away. St. Louis is 3-5 against lefties as well.
Take the RED SOX -1.5 (+150).
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Over/Under
It’s slated to be 77 degrees with an 8-mph wind blowing out to right-center. The Over is 5-0 in the Cardinals’ last 5 following a loss and in their last 5 interleague games. The Over is 4-0 in the Red Sox’s last 4 home games and home games against a righty.
Take the OVER 11 (-105).
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