The South Florida Bulls (4-7, 2-5 AAC) and UCF Knights (8-3, 0-7) play Friday at Spectrum Stadium in Orlando, FL at 8 p.m. ET. We analyze the South Florida-UCF odds and betting lines while providing college football betting tips and advice on this matchup.
South Florida at UCF: Three things you need to know
1. For as bad as UCF looked against Tulsa, it was able to respond last week by narrowly defeating Tulane 34-31. QB Dillon Gabriel racked up 317 yards passing and 58 more on the ground.
2. South Florida dropped its third decision in a row after a 49-10 loss to Memphis. QB Jordan McCloud passed for just 45 yards on 14 attempts.
3. This game comes down to South Florida’s pass defense versus UCF’s passing game. UCF averages over 321 yards through the air (eighth in the nation). South Florida yields just 178.8 yards per game (12th in the nation).
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South Florida at UCF: Odds, betting lines and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 7:30 a.m. ET.
Prediction
UCF 41, South Florida 14
Moneyline (ML)
UCF is laying -3334 on the moneyline and South Florida is +1100 in this conference game.
South Florida has issues protecting the quarterbacks and has gone to a stripped-down conservative rushing attack. The results have been even worse as the Bulls have scored just 9.3 points per game in their last four losses. UCF has too many weapons on offense especially if it gets free looks. The odds are just too chalky with a $10 bet garnering a profit of $0.30. PASS.
Against the Spread (ATS)
UCF is just 2-3 at home against the spread and falls nearly two points below the projection line. South Florida is 3-1 ATS while a surprising six points above the cover.
Take the KNIGHTS (-23.5, -106). A $10 bet here results in a tidy $9.43 profit.
Over/Under (O/U)
The projected total is 62.5. This will be close but it is hard not to side with the UNDER (-110). UCF has given up more than 24 points per game this season but is facing a South Florida team struggling just to get to double digits. That will not be enough as UCF may be able to muster 40 points but likely would need 50-plus for the Over to connect.
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