The Seattle Mariners (10-12) and Philadelphia Phillies (11-12) meet Tuesday in the opener of a 3-game series. First pitch at Citizens Bank Park is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners at Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Phillies won last year’s series 2-1
Seattle is coming off a 5-4 home stand. Mariners’ pitching logged a 3.58 ERA, 1.06 WHIP over those 9 games.
The Phillies have won 3 straight and are 6-2 in their last 8 games. Iffy early-season pitching has been cleared up over that stretch. Philadelphia owns a 3.17 ERA, 1.01 WHIP over those 8 games.
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Mariners at Phillies projected starters
RHP Logan Gilbert vs. LHP Bailey Falter
Gilbert (1-1, 3.57 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 in 22 2/3 IP.
- Lost April 18 start vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 6 IP, 5H, 4 R, 2 HR, 0 BB, 8 K
- Over his career when starting after 6 days’ rest, he has a 2.70 ERA while holding opposing batters to a .588 OPS
Falter (0-3, 4.50 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 4.9 K/9 in 22 IP.
- Getting just a 7.7% swinging-strike rate thus far (would-be career low)
- Making his 2nd start of the season at home, where last year he logged a home-run inflated 5.49 ERA
Mariners at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:21 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Mariners -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Phillies +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+140) | Phillies +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Mariners at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 5, Phillies 4
Moneyline
Falter is making hist 2nd start of the season at home, where last year he struggled (5.49 ERA). Seattle has struggled against left-handers but partly due to a .259 batting average on balls in play against them.
The Mariners look to be underperforming their analytic baseline at the plate, and in their overall record. They also have the better bullpen. Figure the visiting team as having a better-than-55% chance in this contest. TAKE SEATTLE (-120).
Run line/Against the spread
Seattle has played in a lot of 1-run games. AVOID.
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Over/Under
Mixed signals on how the early-season production lines up with expectations. No leverage: PASS.
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