The San Francisco Giants (57-32) visit the St. Louis Cardinals (44-46) Friday for the first of their three-game set at Busch Stadium with an 8:15 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Cardinals 2-1.
RHP Kevin Gausman is on the mound for the Giants. Gausman is 9-3 with a 1.73 ERA (114 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 0.82 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 across 18 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 3-1, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 9 K vs. the Washington Nationals Sunday.
- Gausman took a loss earlier this month vs. the Cardinals (July 5) with 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 8 K in San Francisco’s 5-3 defeat.
- vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 59 at-bats with a .237/.328/.441 slash line, 17/8 K/BB, 3 HR and 7 RBIs.
RHP Adam Wainwright takes the hill for the Cardinals. Wainwright is 7-5 with a 3.58 ERA (105 2/3 IP, 42 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 over 17 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 6-5, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 4 BB and 3 K at the Giants July 6.
- vs. Giants on the current roster: 133 at-bats with a .241/.304/.323 slash line, 18/11 K/BB, 1 HR and 13 RBIs.
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Giants at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:35 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Giants -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Cardinals +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Against the spread/ATS: Giants -1.5 (+125) | Cardinals +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Cardinals 3, Giants 2
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Cardinals (+120) First 5 Innings since St. Louis’ bullpen is terrible.
Since Wainwright has better pitching peripherals vs. current San Francisco batters is much better than Gausman’s against active Cardinals hitters, St. Louis is my preferred side.
Also, the Cardinals are 23-18 at home this season and already took two of three against the Giants in San Francisco earlier this month.
However, most of the baseball community has banked on regression from San Francisco that we haven’t seen yet. Plus Gausman has been dominant this season, so I’d rather take St. Louis’ First 5 Innings run line.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Quietly, Wainwright has re-established himself as the clear ace of the St. Louis rotation since starting RHP Jack Flaherty has gone to the IL.
And despite Wainwright picking up a win in his last start against the Giants, it was his first non-quality start since May 29.
Over that span, Wainwright is 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA (46 IP, 14 ER), 12 BB, 42 K and three home runs allowed in seven starts.
Furthermore, Wainwright has pitched much better at home this season. He is 4-3 in 10 starts at Busch Stadium this season with a 2.55 ERA (5.35 road ERA), 0.97 WHIP (1.47 road WHIP) and a 4.1 K/BB rate (2.3 K/BB rate on the road).
“LEAN” to the CARDINALS +0.5 (-125) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit since St. Louis’ bullpen ranks dead-last in xFIP and K-BB%, and I want to split my unit wager on this game with the Under.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-115) for a half unit because both teams have their aces on the mound Friday, the Giants are 8-9 O/U when Gausman starts, and the Cardinals are 6-11 O/U when Wainwright is on the bump.
Moreover, the Giants are 20-25-1 O/U on the road, and the Cardinals are 16-21-3 O/U at home this season.
That being said, the market is hammering the Under, and this total is “sharp” so there isn’t a ton of value in betting it.
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