The San Diego Padres (49-37) host the San Francisco Giants (42-41) Sunday for their 4-game series finale at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego has won 2 of the first 3 meetings. However, the Giants beat the Padres, 3-1, Saturday thanks to a complete-game, 12-strikeout gem thrown by San Francisco SP Carlos Rodon.
Season series: San Diego leads 6-3, and the Padres have a plus-3 run differential in those meetings.
Giants at Padres projected starters
LHP Alex Wood vs. LHP MacKenzie Gore
Wood is 5-7 with a 4.83 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 78 1/3 IP over 16 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in San Francisco’s 6-2 loss at the Arizona Diamondbacks Tuesday with 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 4 K.
- 2022 vs. the Padres: 0-1 with an 8.59 ERA (7 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 13 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 10 K in 2 starts.
Gore is 4-3 with a 3.18 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 65 IP across 12 starts and 1 bullpen outing.
- Last start: No-decision in San Diego’s 4-2 win Sunday at the Los Angeles Dodgers with 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 4 BB and 3 K.
- 2022 vs. the Giants: One start — a 10-1 win May 22 in San Francisco — with 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 6 K.
Giants at Padres odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Giants +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Padres -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Giants -1.5 (+165) | Padres +1.5 (-205)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Giants at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 4, Giants 3
Money line
BET PADRES (-125) because they are better vs. left-handed pitching, and San Diego’s bullpen is stronger than San Francisco’s.
The Padres are 20-10 vs. lefty starters while the Giants are 15-10 against lefties. San Diego’s lineup ranks ahead of San Francisco’s vs. left-handed pitching in wRC+ (104-103), wOBA (.313-.312), K/BB rate (0.45-0.38) and hard-hit rate (28.9-27.2%), per FanGraphs, and runs per 9 (4.82-4.76).
Also, San Diego’s bullpen is 7th in xFIP (3.66), 4th in K/BB rate (3.22) and 5th in WHIP (1.13), per FanGraphs. Whereas San Francisco’s bullpen has a 4.14 xFIP (ranked 22nd), a 2.41 K/BB rate (21st) and a 1.36 WHIP (26th).
That said, I’d only BET a half-unit on the PADRES (-125) since there’s sketchy reverse line movement in the betting market. Most of the action is on San Diego, but the line is moving towards San Francisco, according to Pregame.com. I’m nervous that the oddsmakers are laying a trap.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I’m not confident enough to “sprinkle” on the RL regardless of how chunky it is because San Diego has flipped to RL underdogs with the Giants moving to RL favorites.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (+105).
There’s a “line freeze” in the betting market for the total since a vast majority of the action is on the Over 7.5 (-130), per Pregame.com, but the total hasn’t budged off the opener. It’s suspicious whenever the oddsmakers don’t adjust the line according to the market movement.
Also, the Giants are 7-9-1 O/U as road underdogs. The Padres are 15-19-1 O/U as home favorites and 12-20 O/U vs. NL West foes.
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