The San Francisco Giants (16-10) clash with the San Diego Padres (15-12) Saturday in Game 2 of their three-game series at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The Padres overcame the Giants in a 3-2 win Friday, as RHP Yu Darvish pitched a 6 1/3-inning, 12-strikeout and 1-ER gem.
Season series: Tied 2-2.
RHP Anthony DeSclafani makes his sixth start for the Giants Saturday. He is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA (30 IP, 5 ER), 0.97 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9.
- Last outing: Complete-game shutout win with 3 H, 1 BB, and 9 K in the Giants’ 12-0 victory over the Colorado Rockies Monday.
- Career vs. the Padres: 1-0 with a 2.17 ERA (29 IP, 7 ER), 1.00 WHIP and 7.4 K/9 in 5 starts.
- DeSclafani pitched to a no-decision at San Diego April 5, throwing 5 IP with 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 4 K in San Francisco’s 3-2 win.
- Career at Petco Park: 0-0 with a 1.59 ERA (17 IP, 3 ER), 0.94 WHIP and 8.5 K/9 in 3 starts.
LHP Blake Snell takes the mound for the Padres. He is 0-0 with a 3.92 ERA (20 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.45 WHIP, 5.2 BB/9 and 13.5 K/9 over 5 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in 5 1/3 IP with 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 7 K in San Diego’s 5-4 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers last Saturday.
- Career vs. Giants: 0-0 with a 3.60 ERA (5 IP, 2 ER), 1.20 WHIP and 14.4 K/9 in 1 start (April 7, 2021).
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Giants at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Giants +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Padres -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Giants +1.5 (-135) | Padres -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Prediction
Padres 5, Giants 1
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Padres (-185) because I’m confident enough in Snell to entertain putting San Diego’s money line in a parlay with a similarly priced favorite for a plus-money payout.
For a straight-up Padres victory, however, the money line bet is a no-go.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
May has been DeSclafani’s least effective month throughout his career. He has a 5.47 ERA and 1.52 WHIP—both the highest of any month—and his 7.0 K/9 is his lowest of any month.
Additionally, DeSclafani is getting the start on four days of rest and his numbers on a four-day rest stack up similarly to his May production. His ERA and WHIP are higher than when he gets five or six-plus days off and his winning percentage is the lowest of the rest splits.
Furthermore, Snell had a so-so outing in his first career start against the Giants in early April, but San Francisco’s lineup will be easier for Snell to navigate this time around. The Giants are without their second and third hitters in RF Mike Yastrzemski and 2B Donovan Solano.
BET PADRES -1.5 (+110) for 1 unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
Even though I’m anticipating/betting on DeSclafani’s regression back to his usual form as the season moves along, he did have a strong outing against the Padres earlier this season and has always pitched well in Petco Park.
Also, the Under is 5-0-1 in the last six Giants-Padres meetings and 13-3 in San Diego’s last 16 home games.
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-120) for a quarter unit if at all because I prefer the Padres’ side more than the total.
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