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The San Francisco Giants (67-66) and Milwaukee Brewers (75-56) play the middle contest of a 3-game set Wednesday at American Family Field. First pitch will be at 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Giants vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Giants lead 1-0
San Francisco took Tuesday’s series lid-lifter 5-4. The Giants hit 3 home runs and have 9 round-trippers over their last 4 contests.
Milwaukee was denied a 6th straight win at home with Tuesday’s setback. Brewers pitching has clocked a 3.22 ERA while the club has gone 8-4 since Aug. 14.
Giants at Brewers projected starters
LHP Kyle Harrison vs. RHP Freddy Peralta
Harrison (7-5, 4.00 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has authored a 1.30 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 117 innings.
- Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 5-3 home victory vs. Chicago White Sox Aug. 19
- 2024 road stats: 3-4, 4.61 ERA (56 2/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.39 WHIP, 7.3 K/9 in 11 starts
- Has never faced Brewers
Peralta (8-7, 3.86 ERA) is making his 27th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 through 142 1/3 innings.
- Last outing: No-decision, 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 3-0 defeat at St. Louis Cardinals Thursday
- 2024 home stats: 4-4, 4.30 ERA (73 1/3 IP, 35 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 in 13 starts
- Career vs. Giants: 0-1, 6.75 ERA (5 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 8 H, 5 BB, 10 K in 3 appearances (2 starts), including 0-1 with 15.43 ERA (2 1/3 IP, 4 ER) in 1 start last year
- Owns 3.26 ERA over his last 12 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Giants at Brewers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Giants +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Brewers -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Giants +1.5 (-155) | Brewers -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Giants at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 5, Giants 4
Moneyline
PASS: look to the run line for better leverage here.
Run line/Against the spread
Looking at recent starts could well lead to some off-the-mark recency bias for both hurlers, giving too much of an edge to Peralta and the Brewers.
Both clubs have played more 1-run games than the league average (36 per Baseball-Reference.com). The Giants have played 40 and the Brewers have played 42.
Milwaukee has slashed a mere .190/.274/.350 (.625 OPS) while averaging just 3.31 runs per game over its last 13 home games.
BACK THE GIANTS +1.5 (-155).
Over/Under
The Over is 35-22-6 in Milwaukee home games.
Tuesday’s game edged on the Over, and the Over is 3-1 across the last 4 series meetings. The upside has also hit in 10 of the Giants’ last 15 games on the road.
The expected-vs.-actual run scoring/prevention numbers for both clubs make for an Over lean here.
Consider a partial-unit play on the OVER 8 (-110).
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