San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (18-14) head up to the Bay Area to begin a three-game set with the NL West rival San Francisco Giants (18-13) Friday at Oracle Park. First pitch is set for 9:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Diego won the rubber match against the Pittsburgh Pirates Wednesday and defeated San Francisco 2-1 in a three-game series last weekend.

The Giants dropped back-to-back games at the Colorado Rockies to lose their previous series and are 5-5 in their last 10 games.

Season series: Tied 3-3.

LHP Blake Snell is the projected starter for the Padres. He is 1-0 with a 3.51 ERA (25 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 5.3 BB/9 and 13.0 K/9 across 6 starts.

  • Last outing: Win in 5 IP with 1 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 6 K against the Giants Saturday.
  • Career vs. Giants: 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA (10 IP, 3 ER), 1.40 WHIP and 12.6 K/9 across 2 starts, both in 2021.
    • vs. Giants on the current roster: 43 at-bats with a .302/.400/.535 slash line and 2 HR.

RHP Anthony DeSclafani gets the start for the Giants. He is 2-1 with a 2.00 ERA (36 IP, 8 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 over 6 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss in 6 IP with 3 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 3 K at the Padres Saturday.
  • Career vs. Padres: 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA (35 IP, 10 ER), 0.97 WHIP and 6.9 K/9 in 6 starts.

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Padres at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Giants +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+115) | Giants +1.5 (-140)
  • Over/Under: 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Padres 5, Giants 2

Money line (ML)

BET the PADRES (-150) for three-fourths of a unit because we want to save a little bit for San Diego’s run line.

The Padres have owned the Giants over the past two seasons. They won 13 of the last 18 meetings head-to-head meetings and six of their past eight games in San Francisco.

Also, DeSclafani hasn’t been nearly as sharp as his basic pitching numbers suggest. He has pitched 15-scoreless innings in two starts against a bad Colorado Rockies lineup—neither of which were at  Coors Field.

Furthermore, DeSclafani is in the 23rd percentile of hard-hit rate, 15th percentile in exit velocity and 44th percentile in K%, according to Statcast.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Not only do the PADRES -1.5 (+115) have an edge in the starting pitching department, but advanced pitching analytics indicate San Diego’s bullpen is a top-3 unit.

Padres relievers are second in both SIERA and K-BB%, first in xFIP and third in left-on-base percentage so I’m confident San Diego’s ‘pen can hold a lead.

On the other side, San Francisco’s bullpen has struggled through the first five weeks of the season. Giants’ relievers are a bottom-10 unit in home runs per nine, SIERA and xFIP.

If it’s either or definitely stick with San Diego’s money line, but I’m sprinkling a little change on the PADRES -1.5 (+115).

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS because San Diego’s lineup hasn’t gotten going yet and San Francisco has several hitters either out of the lineup or with questionable game statuses.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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