The San Diego Padres (7-3) and Pittsburgh Pirates (3-6) tangle in a Monday evening game at PNC Park with a 6:35 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Yu Darvish is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. Over the last two seasons (2020-21) combined, Darvish is 8-3 with a 2.28 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 11.0 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 86 2/3 IP over 14 starts. Darvish faced the Pirates once last season and tossed 6 innings of scoreless, 2-hit ball.
RHP Trevor Cahill is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates. Over 12 appearances in 2020 and 2021, Cahill is 1-3 with a 4.97 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in 29 IP. He’s looking for a bounce-back after allowing seven runs in four frames against the Cincinnati Reds Tuesday. Cahill has often struggled out of the gate with a first-month OPS of .800-plus in four of his last six seasons.
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Padres at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Pirates +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (-135) | Pirates +1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Padres 6, Pirates 4
Money line (ML)
PASS: The Padres have enough value, even on the minus side, on the run-line play.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Padres are 3-0 in road games against the run line. The San Diego offense has been just fine so far with a .759 OPS), but since April 4 the Friars have hit just .174 with runners in scoring position. This Padres offense is capable of more. It’s one that has hit Cahill well in the past (.977 OPS), although in small doses in just 29 plate appearances.
Add in a bullpen clicking on all cylinders with a 0.84 ERA, and the visitors are a decent play on the run line. TAKE SAN DIEGO -1.5 (-135).
Over/Under (O/U)
The factors underpinning a call on the total have some cross signals. Both clubs have leaned toward the Under so far this season (combined 12-4 mark), but tag Monday’s contest — with a projected hitter’s breeze — and some more offense in the tank for perhaps both teams as being a potential double-digit game.
TAKE THE OVER 8 (-110) on a slight lean.
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