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The San Diego Padres (37-39) take on the Philadelphia Phillies (48-24) Tuesday in the 2nd game of a 3-game set at Citizens Bank Park at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Phillies lead 1-0
The Friars dropped their 4th straight with a 9-2 setback Monday. They lead the majors with a .259 batting average but are just tied for 12th with 4.4 R/game. They have 2 starting pitchers on the IL, which contributes to their 17th-ranked 4.07 ERA.
The Phillies are tied for 1st with 5.1 R/game. They’re also 3rd with a 3.14 ERA. Monday’s win was just their 2nd win in 6 games, but they’re still 11-9 over the last 20. DH Kyle Schwarber went 2-for-3 with 2 homers and 4 RBIs Monday. He’s hitting .291 with 5 HR and 12 RBIs this month. His .253 BA is the highest it has been since April 13.
Padres at Phillies projected starters
RHP Michael King vs. RHP Aaron Nola
King (5-4, 3.58 ERA) makes his 15th start and 16th appearance. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 through 83 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 12 K in 5-4 home win Wednesday against Oakland A’s
- Career vs. Phillies: 2 games, 1 start, 6 2/3 IP, 6 ER (8.10 ERA), 1.95 WHIP, 7 K
- Allowed 6 ER over 5 1/3 IP with 6 K’s vs. PHI April 28
Nola (8-3, 3.48 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 88 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 8 ER, 11 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 9-3 setback Thursday at Boston Red Sox
- Last 5 GS vs. Padres: 2-2, 3.09 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 41 K in 35 IP
- April 26 at Padres: Win, 8 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 10 K
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Padres at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:06 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Phillies -145 (bet $145 to win $130)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-165) | Phillies -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Padres at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 5, Phillies 4
Moneyline
I know King got lit up in his start against the Phils earlier this year, but he has a miniscule 1.64 ERA over his last 4 starts. He also has 28 K’s over 22 IP in those starts. Nola got hit hard in Fenway last time out, and he’s about the same pitcher at home as opposed to the road.
The Padres have lost 4 in a row, and the Phillies have beaten them 9 of 10 times. We break that mold Tuesday.
Take the PADRES +120.
Run line/Against the spread
Nola’s 8.0 K/9 is the 2nd-lowest of his career, but he has 5+ K’s in 9 of his last 12 starts. He also has 10+ K’s in his last 3 against San Diego and 5+ in his last 5 starts against it. His home K/9 is also better at 8.3 as opposed to 7.5 on the road.
I like AARON NOLA OVER 4.5 K’s (-155).
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Over/Under
This had an Over feel even before I saw the wind blowing out to straightaway center at 10 mph Tuesday night. The Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings, 6-4 in the last 10 Padres games and 5-4-1 in the last 10 Phillies games.
Take the OVER 8.5 (-120).
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