The San Diego Padres (49-34) visit the Philadelphia Phillies (37-41) Friday to start a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego won eight of its last 10 games but lost 5-4 Thursday at the Cincinnati Reds after the Reds scored two runs in the bottom of the ninth inning off of MLB saves leader RHP Mark Melancon.
Philly has alternated between winning and losing its last seven games and has won only three of its last 10 games.
Season series: Tied 0-0.
RHP Chris Paddack makes his 15th start for the Padres. Paddack is 4-5 with a 4.64 ERA (66 IP, 34 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision with 2 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 2 K in San Diego’s 11-5 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks last Friday.
- vs. Phillies on the current roster: 26 at-bats with a .385/.385/.577 slash line, 7/0 K/BB, 1 HR and 4 RBIs.
RHP Zack Wheeler is on the bump for the Phillies. Wheeler is 6-4 with a 2.20 ERA (106 1/3 IP, 26 ER), 0.97 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 across 16 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 4-2, with 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 8 K Sunday at the New York Mets.
- vs. Padres on the current roster: 25 at-bats with a .320/.452/.440 slash line, 7/6 K/BB, 1 HR and 4 RBIs.
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Padres at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Phillies -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-200) | Phillies -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Padres 4, Phillies 3
Money line (ML)
GIMME the PADRES (+100) for 1 unit because San Diego has been raking lately while Philly’s lineup has been underperforming and Paddack’s advanced pitching numbers against the Phillies are much better than Wheeler’s against San Diego.
Over the past two weeks, the Padres have the highest wRC+ and wOBA. They also have the second-best WAR, fourth-best BB/K rate and third-best hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, the Phillies are 21st in WAR, and 20th in both wRC+ and wOBA over the past 14 days.
Furthermore, it’s a small sample size, but Paddack has a 2.96 FIP, .290 expected wOBA, .427 expected slugging percentage, 31.8% strikeout rate and 88.0 mph exit velocity across 22 plate appearances against active Phillies hitters.
On the other side, Wheeler has a 6.60 FIP, .441 expected wOBA, .551 expected slugging percentage, 24.1% strikeout rate and a 94.0 mph exit velocity in 29 plate appearances against current Padres hitters.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because Padres +1.5 (-200) is too expensive for some insurance on our San Diego money line play even though the Padres are 9-3 ATS as road underdogs and the Phillies are just 8-16 ATS as home favorites.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-115) for a half unit as a “contrarian play” and because several situational trends point to a lower-scoring affair.
According to Pregame.com, nearly 70% of the money wagered is on the Over and the Under is 5-0-1 in San Diego’s last six games as an underdog. The Under also cashed in five straight Wheeler starts.
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