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The San Diego Padres (37-37) close out their 3-game road series against the New York Mets (32-37) on Sunday. First pitch for the finale is at 1:40 p.m. ET at Citi Field (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mets lead 2-0
The Padres have lost the 1st 2 games of the series and seek to avoid getting swept. After losing 2-1 in the opener on Friday, they mustered only 2 hits in a 5-1 loss on Saturday. They are 5-3 in their last 8 games but have lost 6 straight on the road.
The Mets have won 4 in a row and 8 of their last 10 games overall. They have allowed 2 or fewer runs in 3 straight games.
Padres at Mets projected starters
RHP Dylan Cease vs. RHP Tylor Megill
Cease (6-5, 3.36 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 in 83 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 R, 8 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 6-1 home win over the Oakland A’s on Monday
- Had allowed 3 or more runs in 5 straight starts
Megill (1-3, 3.51 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 11.2 K/9 in 25 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 3 R, 5 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 4-2 home loss to Miami on Tuesday
- Mets are 1-4 in his 5 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Padres at Mets odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:27 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Mets +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+130) | Mets +1.5 (-156)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +102 | U: -124)
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Padres at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 4, Mets 2
Moneyline
The Mets, despite winning 4 straight and 8 of 10 games overall, have only swept 1 team at home all season (the Pittsburgh Pirates in 3 games on April 15-17).
The Padres, despite losing their last 6 on the road, have a winning road record at 19-16, while the Mets are 17-23 at home despite winning their last 4 games.
Cease, after allowing 3 or more runs in 5 straight starts, only allowed 1 in his last outing. With Cease on the mound and season trends pointing in the opposite direction of recent ones, expect a Padres win to salvage a win in the series.
But there is more money to made on the spread here, so PASS on the moneyline.
Run line/Against the spread
While the Padres have lost 6 straight on the road, they are 22-12 ATS on the road this season, while the Mets are 15-24 ATS at home. It is hard to ignore those season trends even when recent games go in the other direction.
Also, 7 of the Padres’ wins with Cease starting have been by 2 or more runs.
BET PADRES -1.5 (+130)
Over/Under
Four of the Padres’ last 5 and 9 of their last 13 have had totals of 7 or fewer runs while 4 of the Mets’ last 5 have 7 or fewer total runs.
BET UNDER 7.5 (-124).
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