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The New York Mets (30-37) welcome the San Diego Padres (37-35) to Citi Field Friday for the 1st of a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; teams went 3-3 in 2023
The Mets have started to heat up as of late, winning 6 of their last 8 games. They beat the Miami Marlins in their series-closing battle 3-2 Thursday for a 2-game win streak. New York has won 4 of its last 7 at home yet is just 15-23 at home on the season. It is 27-28 against NL foes.
The Padres have also been surging as of late, winning 5 of their last 6. They swept the Oakland A’s in their last series, winning their last 2 by 1 run with the final game ending 5-4. However, San Diego is just 5-6 straight up over its last 11 and has lost 4 straight on the road. It is 30-27 against NL opponents.
Padres at Mets projected starters
RHP Matt Waldron vs. LHP Sean Manaea
Waldron (4-5, 3.76 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 69 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K in a 13-1 obliterating of the Arizona Diamondbacks Saturday
- 2024 road stats: 2-1, 3.22 ERA (36 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 in 7 starts
- Has never faced Mets
Manaea (3-3, 4.30 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 60 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K in a 7-2 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies Saturday
- 2024 home stats: 0-3, 5.40 ERA (35 IP, 21 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 in 7 starts
- Career vs. Padres: 3-1, 3.89 ERA (34 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 in 8 appearances (6 starts)
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Padres at Mets odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:06 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Mets -104 (bet $104 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+146) | Mets +1.5 (-178)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Padres at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 5, Mets 4
Moneyline
BET PADRES (-112).
The Padres have dominated with Waldron on the mound as of late, winning 4 of his last 5 starts and outscoring their opponent 27-6 in those games. He has had just 7 ER in his last 6 starts.
Meanwhile, while the Mets have been playing better, they have struggled all season long at home, and Manaea has seen his numbers be drastically worse at home as well.
Considering those trends, back PADRES (-112).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Padres are too risky as a run-line favorite here, especially considering New York has performed well over the last week. Similarly, the Mets are too expensive as a run-line underdog.
Over/Under
BET OVER 8 (-110).
The Mets are 6-4-1 O/U in their last 11 games and 34-31-2 O/U on the season, having tallied at least 6 runs in 5 of their last 8 games. They are 3-2 O/U in Manaea’s last 5 starts.
The Padres have gone Over in 4 of their last 6 and are 36-34-1 O/U on the season. San Diego has scored 4 or more in 5 of those 6 and double figures in 2 of them.
Back OVER 8 (-110).
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