The San Diego Padres (52-54) open a 3-game set with the Colorado Rockies (41-64) Monday. First pitch from Coors Field is set for 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Rockies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 4-3
The Padres swept the Texas Rangers over the weekend to move within 5 games of the final NL Wild Card spot. San Diego has been playing pretty consistent baseball, going 6-4 over its last 10 games and 15-15 across its last 30.
The Rockies have dropped 4 of their last 5 games and currently sport the worst record in the National League. Colorado is 18 1/2 games back in the NL West and 15 1/2 games back of an NL Wild Card spot.
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Padres at Rockies projected starters
RHP Seth Lugo vs. LHP Austin Gomber
Lugo (4-5, 3.62 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 82 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 2 R, 3 H, 0 BB, 10 K in 3-2 loss to Pittsburgh Pirates Wednesday
- 2023 road stats: 2-2, 3.38 ERA (45 1/3 IP, 17 ER) and 8.3 K/9 in 8 starts
- Career vs. Rockies: 3-0, 2.64 ERA (30 2/3 IP, 9 ER) in 3 starts and 7 relief appearances
- Career at Coors Field: Allowed 6 R (3 ER) in 7 IP with an 11/2 K/BB in 1 start and 2 relief appearances
- Has served up 5 long balls in his 3 most recent appearances after allowing a total of just 6 HR through his first 12 starts
Gomber (8-8, 5.83 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 through 108 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 6 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 6-5 loss at Washington Nationals Tuesday
- 2023 home stats: 5-4, 7.19 ERA (61 1/3 IP, 49 ER) with 14 HR allowed (2.1 HR/9) over 12 starts
- Career vs. Padres: 2-3, 3.70 ERA (41 1/3 IP, 17 ER) in 7 starts and 4 relief appearances.
- Has made 2 starts against the Padres this year, allowing 3 ER in 6 IP at San Diego on April 2 and 7 ER in 4 IP in a home start on June 9
- Got off to a brutal start this season with a 12.12 ERA over his first 4 turns but has a more respectable 4.71 ERA in 17 starts since, with 3 ER or fewer allowed in 12 of those outings
Padres at Rockies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:21 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Rockies +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (-135) | Rockies +1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 11.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Padres at Rockies picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 6, Rockies 4
Moneyline
Gomber has pitched better lately, with a 3.00 ERA and just 2 BB across 36 IP over his last 6 starts, but he has been awful at home this season. Lugo has been rock-solid, and the Padres have been rolling and have climbed back into the race for a playoff spot. However, San Diego is 23-29 away from home on the season so this price is just a little too steep.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
Colorado dropped 2 of 3 to the lowly Oakland Athletics over the weekend, then proceeded to trade away two of their best hitters. This is a game the Padres should win and the run line for the road team at Coors Field is always in play. Back the PADRES -1.5 (-135).
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Over/Under
Both starters in this game have been pitching well and are likely to avoid getting blown up despite the challenging environment. It probably won’t be a pitchers’ duel, but this game should slide in just UNDER 11.5 (-105).
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