The San Diego Padres (38-45) and Cincinnati Reds (44-39) clash in a Sunday game at 1:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 3-2
San Diego is off to a good start in putting a late-June slide behind it. The Friars, a club that went 2-9 from June 19-30, won Saturday’s game 12-5.
The Reds had a 3-game win streak snapped in Saturday’s setback. Cincinnati is 8-4 with an .889 OPS over its last 12 games on home turf.
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Padres at Reds projected starters
RHP Adrian Morejon vs. LHP Andrew Abbott
Morejon (0-0, 6.75 ERA) is a reliever making his 1st start since 2021. He has a 2.00 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 4 IP in 4 games.
- Filling in for RHP Yu Darvish, who is out due to illness; figures to fill an opener role for perhaps 1 inning-plus
- RHP Pedro Avila, a 26-year-old who has appeared in 4 MLB games over the last 4 years (none this season), is likely to get innings as a bulk reliever
Abbott (4-0, 1.21 ERA) is a rookie making his 6th start. He has registered a 0.94 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 29 2/3 innings.
- Pitched a combined 172 Minor League innings in 2022 and so far in 2023: clocked a 3.35 ERA and a whopping 13.0 K/9
- Has benefited from a .186 batting average on balls in play and a 100% left-on-base rate
- Has gone 6 innings in 4 of his 5 starts
- Coming off a season-high 108 pitches in his last
Padres at Reds odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Padres +116 (bet $100 to win $116) | Reds -136 (bet $136 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-156) | Reds -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 11 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Padres at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 6, Padres 5
Moneyline
The Padres are 17-5 across the last 22 series meetings; they are 4-1 across their last 5 games in Cincinnati.
The pitching on both sides turns the prognosis for this one into an assessment of the teams overall. At 4.35 runs per game and 4.06 RPG allowed, the under-.500 Padres figure as undervalued. At 4.99 and 5.24, the Reds come in likely overvalued by their winning record.
That’s simplistic, but drilling down into the analytics is an exercise that reveals similar findings in the plus and minus expected runs for each side, what their performances should have produced in terms of real runs.
Give the visitors the nod in bullpen advantage, and Cincinnati is not exactly prolific at home (22-21). An early line move nixed what value their was on the moneyline. In relative terms, despite the cost the run line play is superior.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
BACK THE PADRES +1.5 (-164).
Cincinnati plays in a lot of 1-run games. Of late, the Friars have played in a lot of 1- and 2-run affairs.
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Over/Under
The book and bettors were ready for a warmed-up-wind-out-and-humid day in Cincinnati. PASS.
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