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The San Diego Padres (19-20) and Chicago Cubs (22-15) play the rubber match of a 3-game set Wednesday. First pitch from Wrigley Field is set for 2:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: San Diego leads 3-2
Chicago, which was a -163 home favorite, picked up a 3-2 win in the 2nd game of the series Tuesday. Two of Chicago’s 3 runs came via solo HRs, including a walk-off homer from 1B Michael Busch off Padres RHP Enyel De Los Santos. The Cubs had 10 hits to San Diego’s 9 and 16 total bases to San Diego’s 12.
San Diego secured a 2-1 lead in the top of the 8th, but the Cubs scored 2 unanswered runs over the final 2 innings to come away with the win.
Padres at Cubs projected starters
RHP Dylan Cease vs. RHP Hayden Wesneski
Cease (4-2, 2.55 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 0.80 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 42 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 7-1 win over Arizona Diamondbacks Friday
- Career vs. Cubs: 3-2, 2.86 ERA (34 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 22 H, 16 BB, 43 K across 6 starts
Wesneski (2-0, 0.54 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 0.72 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 16 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 3-1 loss vs. Milwaukee Brewers Friday
- Career vs. San Diego: 1-0, 1.80 ERA (5 IP, 1 ER), 4 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 1 start, a 5-2 home victory April 27, 2023
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Padres at Cubs odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:24 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Cubs +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+140) | Cubs +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -130)
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Padres at Cubs picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 4, Cubs 3
Moneyline
LEAN PADRES (-120).
San Diego is 5-2 in its last 7 games and 3-2 in its last 5 on the road. The Padres are also 2-1 in their last 3 matchups vs. Chicago and 4-2 in the last 6 meetings.
This is a lean because each team is 5-5 in its last 10 games overall, and they’ve split the last 10 head-to-head meetings 5-5, as well.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I fully expect the Cubs to cover here as +1.5 (-165) underdogs, as they are the better team ATS at 22-15, while the Padres are only 20-19. However, this line is far too expensive, so bet the moneyline and/or total instead.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (-130).
The Under has hit in 2 of Chicago’s last 3 games and is 6-3 in its last 9. The Under has also hit in 7 of the last 10 San Diego-Chicago matchups.
Be aware that the Over has hit in 5 of San Diego’s last 7 games.
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