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The San Diego Padres (22-24) take on the Atlanta Braves (26-14) Friday in the opener of a 4-game set at Truist Park at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Padres won 4-3 last year
The Padres were swept at home by the Colorado Rockies earlier this week and have dropped 6 of 10. They were shut out 8-0 Wednesday by a team with the worst ERA (5.03) in baseball. Padres 3B Manny Machado continues to struggle, hitting .222 with 5 homers, and SS Xander Bogaerts is hitting just .213.
The Braves are coming off a 7-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs Wednesday. They are still 6-2 over their last 8 games. They tossed shutouts in half of those wins. Speaking of shutouts, LHP Max Fried takes the hill Friday, and he didn’t allow an ER in 3 of his last 4 starts, which spanned 22 IP.
Padres at Braves projected starters
RHP Matt Waldron vs. LHP Max Fried
Waldron (1-5, 5.49 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 39 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 6 K Saturday against Los Angeles Dodgers
- Has never faced Atlanta before
- 2024 road stats: 1-1, 4.19 ERA (19 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 in 4 starts
Fried (3-1, 3.57 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 45 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 3 BB, 5 K Saturday against New York Mets
- Career vs. Padres: 3-0, 1.67 ERA (27 IP, 5 ER), 0.81 WHIP, 21 K in 4 starts
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Padres at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:17 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Braves -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-110) | Braves -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -125 | U: -105)
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Padres at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 5, Padres 2
Moneyline
The Padres are struggling to score runs, and Fried isn’t interested in helping hitters snap slumps.
There’s no play here with Atlanta priced out of range, but MAX FRIED OVER 4.5 K’S (-150) is ripe for the picking. He has 5+ K’s in 4 straight starts.
Run line/Against the spread
Atlanta’s 6 wins over its last 10 games were all by 2+ runs. The Braves are tied for 6th in MLB with 4.8 R/game. The BRAVES -1.5 (-110) is priced fairly enough to take.
Over/Under
Rain is in the forecast for much of the evening with a 6-mph wind coming in from left-center. I was feeling the Under before that bit of information, but with rain comes bigger strike zones in an attempt to get the game in.
Take the UNDER 8 (-105).
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