The San Diego Padres (4-4) and Atlanta Braves (6-2) play the 3rd game of a 4-game set Saturday at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Padres won the 2nd game of the series 5-4 as -104 favorites Friday. SS Xander Bogaerts drove in the game-winning run with a single in the top of the 6th inning.
The Braves were on a 4-game win streak before Friday’s loss. Last season’s NL Rookie of the Year OF Michael Harris II (back) has been placed on the 10-day IL after banging his back on the outfield wall in Atlanta’s 7-6 series-opening win Thursday.
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Padres at Braves projected starters
RHP Michael Wacha vs. RHP Charlie Morton
Wacha (1-0, 6.00 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He allowed 4 ER on 6 H and 3 BB with 2 K in 6 IP in his debut vs. the Colorado Rockies last Saturday.
- Went 11-2 with a 3.32 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 127 1/3 IP across 23 starts for the Boston Red Sox in 2022.
- Career vs. Atlanta: 0-4 with a 5.23 ERA (32 2/3 IP, 19 ER) in 6 starts and 2 relief appearances.
Morton (1-0, 5.06 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He allowed 3 ER on 9 H and 2 BB with 1 K in 5 1/3 IP in his debut at the St. Louis Cardinals Monday.
- Posted a 9-6 record with a 4.34 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 172 IP across 31 starts in 2022.
- Career vs. the Padres: 6-2 with a 2.55 ERA (67 IP, 19 ER) in 11 starts.
Padres at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:20 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Braves -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-150) | Braves -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Padres at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 6, Padres 5
Moneyline
BET BRAVES (-155).
Atlanta should bounce back after losing Friday for the 1st time in 5 games and Morton has had much more success in his career vs. the Padres than Wacha has had against the Braves.
Atlanta is a tough place to go and win consecutive road games since the Braves have won 44 of their last 58 at Truist Park. The Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 road games and should let down after escaping with the close win Friday.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
Four of the last 6 meetings between these teams was decided by 1 run. San Diego +1.5 (-150) should hit, but the Atlanta moneyline is the safer play. Bet the Atlanta moneyline and/or the total instead.
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Over/Under
BET OVER 9 (-115).
The Over has hit in San Diego’s last 7 games vs. right-handed starters and is 6-2 in Atlanta’s last 8 after a loss. These teams have played high-scoring games vs. each other lately, with the Over hitting in 4 of the last 5 meetings, and Saturday’s matchup should be another offensive showcase.
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