The San Diego Padres (3-4) and Atlanta Braves (6-1) play the 2nd game of a 4-game series Friday at Truist Park. First pitch is at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves lead 1-0
Atlanta took Thursday’s opener 7-6 on SS Orlando Arcia’s walk-off RBI single in the 9th. The Padres led 6-4 after the top of the 8th, but the Braves scored 2 in the bottom half of the inning and won it in the 9th.
San Diego OF Juan Soto’s slow start continued as he went 0 for 4, dropping his early batting average to .160. The Padres big hit was a 3-run homer from DH Matt Carpenter in the 4th.
Atlanta knocked San Diego LHP Blake Snell (3 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 2 K) out of the game in the 4th inning, but the Braves bullpen gave up 3 runs to put them in a vulnerable spot. Batting in the 9 spot, Arcia finished 3 for 4 with a homer, double and the winning RBI single. He’s batting .370 and has been a big reason why Atlanta is off to a 6-1 start.
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Padres at Braves projected starters
RHP Nick Martinez vs. LHP Jared Shuster
Martinez (0-1, 5.14 ERA) makes his 2nd start of the season. He allowed 4 earned runs on 6 hits and 2 walks with 5 K’s across 7 innings in his 1st start, a 4-1 home loss to the Colorado Rockies March 31.
- Career vs. Braves: 0-1, 5.14 ERA (7 IP, 4 ER) in 1 start and 1 relief appearance
- Last season vs. Braves: L, 5 IP, 7 H, 3 HR, 4 BB, 3 K in 5-2 home loss April 16
- Current Braves are batting .308 with a .457 wOBA in 42 plate appearances against Martinez
The rookie Shuster (0-1, 7.71 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He allowed 4 earned runs on 6 hits and 5 walks with just 1 K in 4 2/3 innings of a 4-1 loss at the Washington Nationals Sunday.
- His 4-seam fastball averaged 90.1 mph in his 1st career start. He threw it 43% of the time, followed by a changeup at 32% and a slider at 25%.
- Current Padres are hitting .181 with 3 HR and 6 RBIs in 72 at-bats against left-handed pitchers
Padres at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:24 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Braves -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-185) | Braves -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Padres at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 5, Braves 4
Moneyline
The Padres almost got it done Thursday, and I believe they’ll solve the rookie lefty Friday. The key will be keeping Atlanta off the board early as the Braves have been scoring early during their opening 6-1 streak. Atlanta’s bullpen is also taxed and showed vulnerability Thursday. If the Braves don’t get length from the rookie, the same holes will show Friday.
TAKE THE PADRES (+105).
Run line/Against the spread
I’m going to steer clear of the run line with such unpredictable starters on the mound. Instead, I’ll side with the PADRES FIRST 5 INNINGS (-105) with their veteran starter on the mound. Only risk a HALF UNIT here because Atlanta has been mashing early in games.
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Over/Under
I’m going with a contrarian pick here because 90% of the tickets are on the Over, according to Pregame.com. The forecast calls for a cool 58 degrees with a 50% chance of rain in Atlanta. There’s an expected sharp 15% breeze going directly to the right-field foul pole as well. Conditions like these neutralize a bloated Over line because of 2 so-so starters. The Under is 4-0-1 in Martinez’s last 5 starts against teams above .500.
Slight LEAN UNDER 9.5 (-110).
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