The San Diego Padres (3-3) and Atlanta Braves (5-1) open a 4-game series Thursday at Truist Park. First pitch is at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting this season. Padres won the series 4-3 in 2022.
San Diego comes to “Hotlanta” in search of its groove after splitting a 4-game series with the Colorado Rockies and a 2-game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Newly acquired SS Xander Bogaerts has opened the season impressively as he’s 2nd in the majors with 21 total bases while hitting .409 with 3 homers, 7 RBIs and 3 doubles.
Atlanta was a force to be reckoned with in its 3-game sweep at the St. Louis Cardinals to open the week. OF Ronald Acuna Jr. (.370), C Travis d’Arnaud (.385), 1B Matt Olson (.308), SS Orlando Arcia (.304) and 2B Ozzie Albies (.304) are all raking above .300 after the 1st week.
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Padres at Braves projected starters
LHP Blake Snell vs. RHP Spencer Strider
Snell (0-1, 6.23 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He allowed 3 ER on 6 H and 1 BB with 9 K across 4 1/2 IP in his debut against the Rockies last Thursday.
- Has only faced Atlanta once in his career (in 2018 as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays).
- Was a better road pitcher with a 3.06 ERA against a 3.56 home ERA last year.
Strider (1-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He pitched 6-scoreless innings with 3 H and 3 BB with 9 K at the Washington Nationals Saturday.
- He had 2 relief outings against San Diego last year and allowed 2 ER on 2 H and 3 BB while fanning 5 in 4 2/3 IP.
- Was unhittable at home in 16 games (10 starts) last year: 6-1, 2.17 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 14.5 K/9.
Padres at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:52 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Braves -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-145) | Braves -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Padres at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 5, Padres 2
Moneyline
The Braves (-165) came into St. Louis and punched the Cardinals in the mouth early in every game. They’re raking on another level right now, and I look for them to take advantage of Snell’s early season struggles. However, I’m going to PASS on the moneyline and look to the run line for a better value.
Run line/Against the spread
The Braves have won all 5 of their games by multiple runs and all 3 of San Diego’s losses have been by multiple runs. Toss in the Braves’ ace on the hill, and I like their prospects for a multi-run win.
Take the BRAVES -1.5 (+120) for a solid return at home.
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Over/Under
Let me preface this by stating this could go either way. The Braves could tattoo Snell, or it could be the 5-2 game I’m projecting.
I’m LEANING UNDER 8 (+100) because both teams had to travel. It’s a big ballpark, and I feel like the total is inflated due to the teams’ hot bats, which will cool off. I’ll also take AUSTIN RILEY OVER 1.5 TOTAL BASES (+125). He hit .329 with 11 homers, 25 RBIs and 14 doubles in 149 at-bats against lefties last year.
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