The San Diego Padres (56-60) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (57-59) meet for game 2 of a 3-game series Saturday. First pitch from Chase Field is at 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 5-2 after a 10-5 series-opening victory Friday
The Padres climbed to within a game of .500 with a recent hot streak but had dropped 5 of 6 games prior to Friday’s win. San Diego is 13 1/2 games back in the NL West but only 4 games out of an NL Wild Card spot.
Arizona has been ice-cold. The Diamondbacks have lost 9 straight games and are 7-25 over their last 32 games, slipping from the lead in the NL West to 3 games back of the final NL Wild Card spot.
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Padres at Diamondbacks projected starters
LHP Rich Hill vs. RHP Zac Gallen
Hill (7-11, 5.09 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.48 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 122 IP for the Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates.
- Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 6 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 8-2 home loss vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday in Padres debut
- 2023 road stats: 3-5, 4.64 ERA (42 2/3 IP, 22 ER) and 8.4 K/9 in 8 starts
- Career vs. Diamondbacks: 1-8, 6.18 ERA (67 IP, 46 ER) in 13 starts
- 2023 vs. Diamondbacks: Loss, 4 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 3 K in 7-3 road loss with Pirates on July 7
Gallen (11-5, 3.37 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 149 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 5-3 road loss vs. Minnesota Twins Sunday
- 2023 home stats: 9-1, 1.96 ERA (73 1/3 IP, 16 ER) with 10.3 K/9 in 11 starts
- Career vs. Padres: 2-3, 3.70 ERA (56 IP, 23 ER) with 9.2 K/9 in 10 starts; has faced them twice this season, allowing 4 ER in 13 IP with a 14/1 K/BB.
Padres at Diamondbacks odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:11 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Diamondbacks -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-160) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Padres at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Diamondbacks 6, Padres 4
Moneyline
Arizona has been reeling and they have even lost the last 5 games in which their ace Gallen has started. He hasn’t been quite as dominant lately, with a 4.38 ERA across his last 8 starts.
Hill has had a rough season and has been especially bad lately, with a 7.07 ERA and 20/13 K/BB in 28 IP over his last 6 starts. Look for the DIAMONDBACKS (-150) to get back into the win column.
Run line/Against the spread
Arizona hasn’t won by multiple runs in their last 14 games, and they haven’t won by more than 2 runs in their last 21 contests. They have the clear pitching edge and should come out on top in this one, but PASS on the run line.
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Over/Under
The Under has hit in 11 of the Diamondbacks’ last 13 games and they have scored just 30 runs in their last 13 games. However, they put up a 5-spot Friday and the bats should wake up against Hill, who hasn’t been able to shut anybody down lately.
The total has gone over in 7 of the last 9 for the Padres and Gallen has taken a step back lately, allowing 3 ER or more in 6 of his last 8 starts. The total should check in right around this number, but given the way Hill has pitched recently, a small play on OVER 9 (-105) looks like the way to go.
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