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The San Diego Padres (93-68) and Arizona Diamondbacks (88-73) wrap up their regular-season series Sunday at Chase Field. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Padres vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 7-5
The Padres are locked into the No. 4 seed in the NL playoffs, but they look like the team fighting to stay in the mix for the final Wild Card spot. San Diego took down Arizona 5-0 on Saturday, limiting the D-backs to just 2 hits.
The Diamondbacks are battling the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets for the final 2 Wild Card spots in the NL. However, Arizona has dropped 5 of the past 6 games, and it now finds itself tied with the Mets in percentage points, and New York has 2 games in hand.
The Under cashed for the Padres in Saturday’s game, and is now 10-1-1 in the past 12 games since Sept. 15
Padres at Diamondbacks projected starters
LHP Martin Perez vs. RHP Brandon Pfaadt
Perez (5-5, 4.25 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 131 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 6-2 home victory vs. Chicago White Sox Sept. 21
- 2024 road splits: 2-3, 5.57 ERA, 53 1/3 IP, 33 ER, 62 H, 12 HR, 21 BB, 38 K, .290 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 1.56 WHIP in 10 starts
- Last 7 games: 3-0, 2.80 ERA (35 1/3 IP, 11 ER), 32 H, 13 BB, 28 K, 1.27 WHIP
- Career vs. Diamondbacks: 0-1, 3.48 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 15 H, 2 HR, 4 BB, 7 K, 1.84 WHIP, 6.1 K/9 in 2 starts
Pfaadt (10-10, 4.80 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 176 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 2 2/3 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 6 H (2 HR), 2 BB, 4 K in 11-0 home victory vs. San Francisco Giants Tuesday
- 2024 home splits: 6-5, 5.31 ERA (83 IP, 49 ER), 13 HR, 19 BB, 86 K, .280 OBA, 1.35 WHIP in 15 starts
- Last 7 games: 3-4, 8.53 ERA (31 2/3 IP, 30 ER), 12 BB, 41 K, 1.89 WHIP
- Career vs. Padres: 0-2, 3.81 ERA (28 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 36 H, 3 HR, 6 BB, 28 K, 1.48 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 in 5 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Padres at Diamondbacks odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 1:49 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Diamondbacks -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-140) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Padres at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 5, Diamondbacks 2
Moneyline
The PADRES (+145) are a solid value as moderate underdogs. San Diego has outscored Arizona 10-3 in this series so far, and the Diamondbacks (-175) are playing about as poorly as possible.
The time is ticking for Arizona, as it has just 1 more chance to grab a win and get in the mix for a playoff spot, but Pfaadt has been awful lately. In fact, in his past 7 starts, he has been allowing nearly a run per inning. Not good.
Run line/Against the spread
If you’re a more conservative bettor, PADRES +1.5 (-140) is not priced out of the line if you’d like a little bit of insurance.
The Diamondbacks -1.5 (+115) haven’t shown any signs of life, and using Pfaadt is bad news for Arizona’s postseason chances.
Over/Under
UNDER 9 (-115) might be the best play on the board here.
The Under has dominated for the Padres lately, going 10-1-1 in the past 12 contests. The Under is 5-1 in the past 6 road games for San Diego, too. The total has gone low at a 2-0-1 clip in the past 3 starts for the southpaw Perez.
As far as the Diamondbacks are concerned, the Under has cashed in the 1st 2 games of this crucial series, with Arizona scoring 3 or fewer runs in 4 of the past 5 games with 2 shutout losses.
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