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The San Diego Padres (92-68) and Arizona Diamondbacks (88-72) play the middle contest of a 3-game series Saturday at Chase Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Padres vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 6-5
The Padres are locked into the No. 4 seed in the National League playoffs. San Diego picked up a 5-3 win as a short ‘dog (+115) Friday as the Under (8.5) hung on. It was a crushing blow to Arizona as it battles with the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets for 2 final Wild Card spots in the NL.
The Padres are bringing back RHP Randy Vasquez from Triple-A El Paso, trying to keep their regular arms fresh for the postseason.
The Under is now 9-1-1 in the past 11 games since Sept. 15. Friday’s Under snapped a 3-0-1 run to the Over for the Diamondbacks.
The Diamondbacks are just 1-4 in the past 5 games, and they’ve scored 3 or fewer runs in 3 of the past 4 games. Arizona is losing what was once a strong grip on a potential playoff spot.
Padres at Diamondbacks projected starters
RHP Randy Vasquez vs. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
Vasquez (4-7, 5.18 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.59 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 92 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 9 ER, 11 H (1 HR), 4 BB, 3 K in 11-4 road setback vs. Tampa Bay Rays Aug. 31
- 2024 road splits: 3-4, 6.79 ERA, 50 1/3 IP, 38 ER, 74 H, 7 HR, 17 BB, 29 K, .349 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 1.81 WHIP in 11 starts
- Last 7 games: 2-3, 6.09 ERA (34 IP, 23 ER), 39 H, 14 BB, 20 K, 1.56 WHIP
- Career vs. Diamondbacks: 8-4, 3.55 ERA (101 1/3 IP, 40 ER), 85 H, 15 HR, 35 BB, 131 K, 1.18 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 in 18 starts
Rodriguez (3-4, 5.56 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.52 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 45 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H (3 HR), 3 BB, 8 K in 6-3 home setback vs. San Francisco Giants Monday
- 2024 home splits: 0-3, 6.75 ERA (24 IP, 18 ER), 6 HR, 10 BB, 26 K, .303 OBA, 1.67 WHIP in 5 starts
- Last 7 games: 2-4, 5.71 ERA (34 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 14 BB, 38 K, 1.62 WHIP
- Career vs. Padres: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 1 start, an 11-0 road victory Aug. 23, 2019, with Boston Red Sox
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Padres at Diamondbacks odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Diamondbacks -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-145) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Padres at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Diamondbacks 8, Padres 6
Moneyline
The DIAMONDBACKS (-175) are a good play in the middle game of this series, as the Padres (+145) just cannot be trusted with Vasquez coming back from the minors. He had a dismal 8.21 ERA in 10 starts with El Paso, and he is simply coming up to the big club in a meaningless game to save the other arms for the postseason.
Run line/Against the spread
If you’re a little more on the adventurous side, play DIAMONDBACKS -1.5 (+120) laying the run and a half.
The Diamondbacks are fighting for their playoff lives, while the Padres +1.5 (-145) are locked into the No. 4 seed. It won’t be easy, and certainly don’t bet both the moneyline and run line.
Over/Under
OVER 9 (-120) might be the best play on the board here.
The Over is 3-1-1 in the past 5 games for the Diamondbacks, and the total has gone high at a 4-1-1 clip in the past 6 outings by the southpaw Rodriguez.
For the Padres, the Under is 9-1-1 in the past 11 games, but the Over is 9-2 in Vasquez’s past 11 starts in the majors, so go against the recent team trends.
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