The Baltimore Ravens have been wildly inconsistent this season. Earlier in the season, the offense struggled to move the ball effectively while dealing with a string of games with bad turnovers and penalties. While they eventually turned it around, the defense has been going through the flip of that situation — starting the season strong only to falter recently. And with the playoffs starting this week, the Ravens’ defensive regression is their largest flaw right now, according to Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar.
Farrar points to Baltimore’s huge slide down in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) since Week 10 as a major concern. The Ravens went from fifth overall to 27th, seeing both the run and pass defense drop in their own respective rankings. That lines up well with their struggles against even mediocre offenses over that timeframe and should rightfully be the biggest concern for the Ravens heading into the playoffs.
Baltimore has the Tennessee Titans’ second-ranked offense to deal with this week, including top running back Derrick Henry and an underrated quarterback in Ryan Tannehill. If the Ravens want to go to Super Bowl LV, they’ll likely have to contend with other top offenses like the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills on the road through the playoffs. No matter how well Baltimore’s offense is playing, the defense’s struggles could derail their postseason hopes if they aren’t cleaned up in a hurry.
However, there’s quite a lot of hope here as well. Though Farrar only briefly mentions it in his breakdown, the Ravens have been one of the most injured teams in the league this season. And with the list of names missing games, it’s easy to see how those injuries and losses have been responsible for Baltimore’s defensive difficulties.
The Ravens have missed guys like Campbell, Williams, Marcus Peters, Jimmy Smith, Anthony Averett, Justin Madubuike, Pernell McPhee, Iman Marshall, Matthew Judon, and Yannick Ngakoue for at least one game due to injury or COVID-19 just since Week 11. With that many starters and impact players sitting on the bench, it’s no wonder the defense slipped so much in the DVOA rankings.
Looking back to Week 11 against the Titans, the Ravens were missing defensive linemen Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams. Though Baltimore managed to keep Henry in check for most of the game, not having much of a rotation on the defensive line meant the starters were gassed when the game went to overtime. In addition, linebackers and defensive backs had to commit to coming down in run support and blitzes to help out, creating big plays elsewhere.
Granted, it’s not like the Ravens spent the last five weeks battling the toughest offenses the league has to offer, but they have improved as players have returned to the lineup.
With Ngakoue and Williams back on the field, Baltimore shut down both the New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars’ run games, holding them to a combined 116 rushing yards (good for a 3.4 yards-per-carry average) and no rushing touchdowns while picking up 11 combined sacks in those two games. Peters and Campbell returned in Week 17 to face off against a Cincinnati Bengals team fresh from putting up 770 total yards and 64 total points against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans. The Ravens held the Bengals to a paltry three points and 195 total yards, most of which largely came in garbage time with starters resting.
There’s a “good chance” guys like Campbell, Smith, Ngakoue, Peters, and others will be healthy enough to return to action this week against the Titans. If the last three weeks are any indication of what to expect as Baltimore gets healthy, the Ravens should be close to top form once again. Except they have the offense to take advantage of it now.
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