Predicting where the top 21 free agents will land

From Tom Brady to Amari Cooper to Philip Rivers, Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar identifies likely fits for this year’s top NFL free agents.

Derrick Henry: Tennessee Titans

Derrick Henry Tennessee Titans
(Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports)

People will tell you that running backs don’t matter in the modern NFL, but the Titans might beg to differ. While Mike Vrabel’s team was undergoing a quarterback transition from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill last season, it was Derrick Henry, more than anybody else, who carried the team to the AFC Championship Game. Henry had been a decent player through his first three seasons since the Titans selected him in the second round of the 2016 draft, but he blew up for 303 carries for 1,540 yards and 16 rushing touchdowns in the 2019 regular season — leading the NFL in each of those three categories — and added 83 carries for 446 yards and two more touchdowns in three postseason games. As Pro Football Focus points out, Henry’s 1,605 rushing yards after contact were almost 500 more than the closest pursuer at the position, and his 4.16 yards per carry after contact was the best number among backs with more than 100 carries. Also, Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell all averaged fewer total yards per carry than Henry did after contact per carry.

There are fungible backs, and there are irreplaceable entities at any position. Henry proved to be irreplaceable at his position in 2019, and while he might be disappointed in his payday because of the vagaries of his position, it’s difficult to see the Titans letting him go.