There are all kinds of reasons players end up on new teams in free agency. The best reason, of course, is that a front office and a group of coaches will correctly estimate that the player fits perfectly in the new team’s set of schemes and concepts. Other teams prefer to take their existing cap space, throw stuff against the wall and see if anything sticks. No matter the reason, here’s where we think the top 21 players in the upcoming free-agent class will land.
This list doesn’t include players who have been given the franchise tag by their current teams, although those moves can lead to sign-and-trade deals — in the case of Jacksonville Jaguars edge-rusher Yannick Ngakoue, that scenario seems especially possible. And with Drew Brees saying that he’s coming back to the Saints and reportedly willing to take a below-market deal to do so, he’s off the list as well. These are the top 21 potential free agents at this point, and where we think they will land based on positional need, player value and team cap flexibility.
Tom Brady: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It sounds crazy to some, but there’s no guarantee that Brady will be back with the Patriots after 20 fairly successful seasons. Following a frustrating 2019 campaign in which he struggled with timing and accuracy with receivers who couldn’t consistently gain separation, Brady fell short of the Super Bowl despite a Patriots defense that was one of the best in recent memory. One might assume the Patriots can improve that situation in the offseason, but what if Brady is simply looking for a change of scenery? He would require a team that is on a championship curve minus the quarterback, a group of receivers who can beat coverage and an offensive play-designer who can match Brady’s remaining talents with the right scheme.
The Buccaneers come in with a check-check-check scenario. Todd Bowles coordinated a defense that rose from dead last to fifth overall in Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted metrics. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are one of the NFL’s most formidable receiving duos, and if you can get Bruce Arians to use his tight ends in the passing game, there’s the dynamic duo of Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard. When matching Brady and Arians together, as some observers have tried to do based on this Tampa Bay Times report that the Bucs are “all in” on the idea of Brady, many will cite Arians’ preferred deep passing attack and Brady’s supposedly dead arm. Well, last season, even with an underwhelming group of targets, Brady still completed 26 of 67 passes of 20 or more air yards for 749 yards, with seven touchdowns and three interceptions. Plus, Arians’ passing game is more than just a bunch of go routes — think more of three levels to the quarterback’s front side, and quick bailout routes to the back side.
So, when you consider alternate accommodations for Tom Brady, Tampa Bay is definitely one destination to consider.