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The Pittsburgh Pirates (56-62) and San Diego Padres (67-53) play the 2nd game of a 3-game series at Petco Park Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 4-0
The Padres won 2-1 as -201 favorites in the Monday opener as the Under (8.5) easily cashed. 2B Xander Bogaerts drove in a run on a 7th-inning single, and CF Jackson Merrill dove for a game-saving catch on a liner from Pirates LF Bryan Reynolds in the 9th.
The Pirates failed to cash as +183 underdogs, losing for the 10th time in 11 games. SP Jake Woodford allowed just 1 ER on 3 hits with 2 K’s in the loss, but gave up a 7th-inning leadoff double to Padres LF Jurickson Profar, who eventually scored.
Pirates at Padres projected starters
RHP Luis L. Ortiz vs. RHP Michael King
Ortiz (5-2, 3.40 ERA) makes his 8th start and 30th appearance. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 90 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 7-6 home loss vs. Padres Thursday
- 2024 road stats: 3-1, 2.70 ERA (40 IP, 12 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 in 14 appearances (3 starts)
- Career vs. Padres: 0-0, 6.75 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 2.5 K/9 in 2 starts
King (9-6, 3.34 ERA) makes his 23rd start and 24th appearance. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 129 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER (4 R), 6 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 9-8 win in 10 innings at Pirates Wednesday (only career appearance vs. Pittsburgh)
- 2024 home stats: 1-4, 4.25 ERA (48 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 13.1 K/9 in 9 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Pirates at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:58 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Padres -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-115) | Padres -1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Pirates at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 5, Pirates 4
Moneyline
The Padres (-225) are 17-3 since July 20 and 4-0 against the Pirates this season. However, it’s a losing proposition long term to bet into lines with this much vig.
PASS. Bet the run line and/or total instead.
Run line/Against the spread
Pittsburgh has lost back-to-back games by just 1 run and covered +1.5 in 3 of its 4 losses to San Diego this season. Neither starter was impressive last week in Pittsburgh, and the Padres have beaten the Pirates by 2 or more runs just twice over the last 10 meetings.
BET PIRATES +1.5 (-115).
Over/Under
Ortiz has allowed 4 or more ER in back-to-back starts, and King gave up 4 runs in Wednesday’s meeting. Both offenses should bounce back after a low-scoring series opener, and this is one of the best numbers in the market.
BET OVER 8 (+100).
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