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The Pittsburgh Pirates (56-61) and San Diego Padres (66-53) open a 3-game series at Petco Park Monday. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 3-0
The Pirates were swept in a 3-game weekend series at the Los Angeles Dodgers. They lost 6-5 as +222 underdogs in the Sunday finale as the Over (8.5) hit. Pittsburgh is last in the NL Central and 5 games back of the Atlanta Braves for the final NL Wild Card spot.
The Padres failed to complete a 3-game sweep at the Miami Marlins, wrapping up the series with a 7-6 loss as -194 favorites Sunday with the Over (7.5) cashing. San Diego is tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the 2nd-best record in the NL West — 3½ games behind the division-leading Dodgers — and the top NL Wild Card.
Pirates at Padres projected starters
TBD vs. RHP Joe Musgrove
LHP Marco Gonzales (1-1, 4.54 ERA) is projected to make his 8th start. He has a 1.60 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 in 33 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 9-8 home loss in 10 innings vs. Padres Wednesday
- 2024 road stats: 1-0, 3.93 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.75 WHIP, 5.9 K/9 in 4 starts
- Career vs. Padres: 1-0, 5.52 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.57 WHIP, 6.1 K/9 in 3 starts
Musgrove (3-4, 5.66 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.48 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 49 1/3 IP.
- Has been out since May 26 with right elbow inflammation; expected to be limited to 60 pitches Monday
- Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 5-2 home win over New York Yankees May 26
- 2024 home stats: 2-3, 5.26 ERA (37 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 in 7 starts
- Career vs. Pirates: 1-2, 3.33 ERA (27 IP, 10 ER), 1.37 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 in 5 starts, including 0-0 with 3.00 ERA (6 IP, 2 ER) in 1 start last year
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Pirates at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:32 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Padres -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-155) | Padres -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Pirates at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 5, Pirates 4
Moneyline
The PADRES (-165) have won 7 of 8 games and haven’t lost 2 straight since a 2-game skid July 14-19 (before and after the All-Star break). The Pirates have lost 7 consecutive games and were swept last week by the visiting Padres in a 3-game series.
BET PADRES (-165).
Run line/Against the spread
Pittsburgh +1.5 (-155) will likely hit — 2 of its 3 losses to San Diego this season have been by just 1 run — but it’s hard to stay profitable in MLB betting into lines with this much vig.
PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.
Over/Under
Musgrove’s 5.66 ERA this season is the highest of his career, and there’s no guarantee he’ll bounce back after missing all of June and July with elbow inflammation. Gonzales has allowed 4 or more ER in back-to-back outings, with the most recent start against the Padres in Pittsburgh Wednesday.
BET OVER 8 (-115).
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