The Pittsburgh Pirates (47-77) and Philadelphia Phillies (70-55) open a 3-game set Friday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch in the opener is slated for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pirates vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Philadelphia leads 4-0
The Pirates have lost 5 straight games and 11 of their last 13. The Bucs have been doubled up 84-42 on the scoreboard in those 13 games, the last 8 of which were at home. Pittsburgh is 3-14 in its last 17 games on the road.
The Phillies are coming off a 4-game sweep at home of the Cincinnati Reds. Philadelphia is 12-4 in its last 16 games at Citizens. The Phils have logged a robust .863 OPS over those 16 games.
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Pirates at Phillies projected starters
RHP Bryse Wilson vs. LHP Bailey Falter
Wilson (2-7, 5.74 ERA) owns a 1.44 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 through 78 1/3 IP in 17 games (14 starts).
- Has a 6.68 ERA on the road
- Has a 3.96 ERA in his last 7 starts
Falter (1-3, 4.40 ERA) has logged a 1.29 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 45 IP in 12 games (8 starts).
- Has allowed 3 runs in his last 12 IP, including a July 29 start against Pittsburgh allowing 2 R in 6 IP
- Made 2 starts in the minors in between his last 2 outings for the Phillies
Pirates at Phillies odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:23 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Pirates +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Phillies -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (+105) | Phillies -1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Pirates at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 5, Pirates 3
Money line
Not much interest in the sides here. Neither has as much lean as the Under. But NIX THE ML ACTION due to the extra juice.
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Run line/Against the spread
Pittsburgh has struggled in road openers, and the Pirates have had enough non-competitive games of late to add to the ammunition here.
Consider a partial-unit play on PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (-130).
Over/Under
This is not one of the more attractive games on the Friday schedue, and its because of this starting pitching match-up. There is, however, enough baked in pull toward lesser offensive totals for both sides: factors like situational “luck,” quality of contact vs. production, etc.
Falter does not have much of that in his line, but the UNDER 8.5 (+100) does still have a bit of leverage.
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