The Pittsburgh Pirates (36-50) and Miami Marlins (41-43) meet Monday to lift the lid on a 4-game series at loanDepot park. First pitch is slated for 6:40 p.m. ET . Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pirates vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: first meeting. Pittsburgh took 5-of-7 games from Miami in 2021.
A Pirates club that has struggled on the road (16-27) is 4-2 over its last 6 games away from PNC Park. Pittsburgh took 2-of-3 contests from the Milwaukee Brewers over the weekend.
The Marlins are back at home after a 2-2 trip at the New York Mets. Miami is 8-3 across its last 11 games with its pitching staff leading the way. Marlins hurlers have notched a 2.65 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over that stretch.
Pirates at Marlins projected starters
RHP Mitch Keller vs. LHP Trevor Rogers
Keller (2-6, 5.21 ERA) has appeared in 16 games overall and 14 as a starter. He has a 1.55 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 through 76 IP.
- Got off to a rocky start this season but owns a 4.15 ERA over his last 9 starts — a stretch that includes more than a few turns against top-10 offensive clubs.
- Has been hurt by a .342 batting average on balls in play.
Rogers (4-7, 5.57 ERA) has registered a 1.57 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 72 2/3 IP across 16 starts.
- Hasn’t logged more than 5 IP in a start since May 14.
- Has compiled a 6.47 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in his last 9 starts.
- Has struggled mightily at home with a 7.98 ERA through 29 1/3 IP.
Pirates at Marlins odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 10:13 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Pirates +133 (bet $100 to win $133) | Marlins -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Run line (RL): Pirates +1.5 (-165) | Marlins -1.5 (+133)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Pirates at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 4, Pirates 2
Money line
Pittsburgh’s .658 OPS against southpaws ranks 4th worst in the league. Keller is a ground-ball pitcher and Miami sports above-average figures against such types.
The Marlins also have batting splits tilting a good deal toward right-handers and home games.
However, this price on the home 9 is too aggressive, Consider a line watch and a play on Miami at -155 or better. PASS for now.
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Run line/Against the spread
MIAMI -1.5 (+133) is the best side offered up in this one. Consider a partial-unit play, though.
Over/Under
Both clubs have sub-.660 OPS figures so far this month. Both starters have been dinged by higher-than-average hit rates on balls in play.
BACK THE UNDER 7.5 (-110) in Miami’s home-run-suppressant home yard.
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