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The Pittsburgh Pirates (21-26) visit the Chicago Cubs (26-21) at Wrigley Field Sunday to finish their 4-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 3-3
It was a pitchers’ duel in Chicago Saturday. Both teams combined for 9 hits and 15 K’s in a 1-0 Cubs victory. The line of 8.5 total runs didn’t come close, while those who bet Chicago (-210) came away thankful.
Cubs LHP Shota Imanaga lowered his ERA to 0.84 and 3B Christopher Morel brought in the only run, a single in the bottom of the 9th inning to walk it off.
Pirates LHP Bailey Falter also showed off his arm, throwing for 7 2/3 innings and allowing just 3 hits.
Pirates at Cubs projected starters
RHP Mitch Keller vs. RHP Jameson Taillon
Keller (4-3, 3.93 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 55 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 8-6 road win at Milwaukee Brewers Monday
- 2024 road stats: 2-2, 4.03 ERA (29 IP, 13 ER) in 5 starts
Taillon (3-1, 1.61 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 in 28 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 7-0 loss to Atlanta Braves Tuesday
- 2024 home stats: 3-0, 1.08 ERA (16 2/3 IP, 2 ER) in 3 starts
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Pirates at Cubs odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:40 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Cubs -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-200) | Cubs -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Pirates at Cubs picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 7, Pirates 3
Moneyline
The Cubs are 14-8 (63.6%) straight up at Wrigley this year. On top of that, they post a 12-7 record (63.2%) as favorites.
LEAN CUBS (-125).
Run line/Against the spread
Coming off of a loss, the Pirates have the worst cover rate in baseball at 9-16 (36%). But after a win, the Cubs are not something to rest your hat on. They are 12-13 (48%) and 2-7 (22.2%) against divisional opponents.
I personally would stick with the moneyline.
AVOID.
Over/Under
Despite last game, the Cubs and Pirates tend to go Over when they play against NL Central teams. Chicago has an Over record of 5-3-1 (62.5%), while Pittsburgh’s is 7-5-1 (58.3%). I expect a rebound from both teams after Saturday’s offensive woes.
BET OVER 7.5 (-105).
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