The Pittsburgh Pirates (34-31) continue their 3-game series with the Chicago Cubs (29-37) Wednesday. First pitch from Wrigley Field is at 8:05 ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Chicago leads 1-0
The Cubs took Tuesday’s opener 11-3 despite the Pirates scoring first on CF Jack Suwinski’s 1st-inning solo homer. Chicago LF Ian Happ responded with a 3-run blast in the bottom of the 1st, and after Suwinski’s 2nd homer of the game tied it at 3-3 in the 6th, the Cubs regained the lead on 1B Matt Mervis’ RBI single in the bottom of the 6th. Chicago increased the lead behind a 4-run 7th (bases-loaded hit by pitch, SS Dansby Swanson RBI single and 2-run single by PH Yan Gomes) and wrapped up the victory with a 3-run, 8th-inning homer by LF Christopher Morel — he replaced Happ in the top of the inning.
It was the Cubs’ 3rd victory in their last 4 games. Tuesday marked their return home after a 4-6 road trip through San Diego, Anaheim and San Francisco.
Pittsburgh, which leads the NL Central by 1 game over the Milwaukee Brewers, had just taken 2 of 3 at home from the New York Mets, winning Friday and Sunday. Tuesday was the Bucs’ 1st game of a 6-game trip, which will take them to Milwaukee after these 3 at Wrigley.
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Pirates at Cubs projected starters
RHP Osvaldo Bido vs. LHP Drew Smyly
Bido will make his major-league debut. He was 3-4 with a 4.55 ERA (55 1/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 12 appearances (10 starts) at Triple-A Indianapolis.
- Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 4 H, 5 B, 3 K in 15-7 rout by the visiting Triple-A Omaha Storm Chasers
- Last 4 starts: 1-1, 6.75 ERA (20 IP, 15 ER), 19 H, 11 BB, 15 K
- Allows .248 batting average when bases are empty and a .196 when runners are aboard
Smyly (5-4, 3.27 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 71 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 4 K in a 3-1 loss at Los Angeles Angels Thursday
- Home splits: 2-1, 3.52 ERA (30 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 0.98 WHIP, 9.7 K/9
- .208 opponent batting average against righties; .318 vs. lefties
Pirates at Cubs odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:29 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Cubs -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-155) | Cubs -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Pirates at Cubs picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 8, Pirates 3
Moneyline
At Wrigley, the Cubs match up well against good teams. They’ve won 10 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record (per Covers.com), but the -155 price is a bit too juicy for a team below .500.
AVOID.
Run line/Against the spread
With the Pirates pitcher making his MLB debut, I see a great opportunity for the Cubs. Bido averaged over 4 walks per 9 innings in the minors. The Cubs are 3rd in MLB in walks.
Bido will face a lot of pressure in his debut. LEAN CUBS -1.5 (+125).
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Over/Under
BET OVER 9 (+100).
There are several trends that back up this wager.
Against the NL Central, the Cubs have gone Over in 6 straight games.
The Over is 14-3-2 in the Pirates’ last 19 road games vs. left-handed starters.
The Over is 4-1 in the Pirates’ last 5 road games and 8-3 in the Pirates’ last 11 games following a loss.
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