The Pittsburgh Pirates (18-27) and Atlanta Braves (22-24) cap off a four-game set Sunday at 1:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pirates vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP JT Brubaker is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates. He is 3-3 with a 3.27 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, and 2.5 BB/9 in 44 IP over 8.
Brubaker was roughed up in his last (May 18 at St. Louis: 5 runs in 5 2/3 IP), but he went into that start with a fine 2.58 ERA. Control has been a bit of an issue of late. Brubaker has walked 7 batters in his last 16 2/3 IP.
LHP Max Fried is the projected starter for the Braves. He is 1-2 with a 5.46 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, and 3.5 BB/9 in 28 IP over 6 starts.
Fried exited the last game due to cramping in his left hand, but he is expected IL stint in April; he has since logged a 1.59 ERA in 17 IP.
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Pirates at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Pirates +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+100) | Pirates +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Braves 5, Pirates 4
Money line (ML)
Highlighted by a 20-1 victory on Friday, the Braves have taken the first two games of this series. The Pirates lost Friday and Saturday and are 1-5 in their last six games and 6-16 in their last 22.
A price of 170-plus would make for more confidence in the play, but PITTSBURGH +165 is the lean here. Underlying batted-ball analytics indicate that Brubaker has been good enough to warrant a go, and there is enough gray area in Fried’s fitness and enough bullpen leverage on the Pirates side to warrant a play on the underdog.
The Pirates are 4-2 over their last six road-park get-away days.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The PIRATES +1.5 (-120) should be a slight lean for bettors who want a bit of “Pittsburgh-is-a-bad-team” insurance.
Over/Under (O/U)
Looking at Statcast numbers and some batting-average-on-balls-in-play figures in key situations, both sides are undercooked a bit with their offensive numbers.
The weather forecast calls for temps in the high-80s and an outward breeze (which figures to impact Fried’s fly-ball stuff more than Brubaker’s ground-ball stuff).
BACK THE OVER 8 (-110).
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