The Pittsburgh Pirates (18-26) and Atlanta Braves (21-24) play the second of a four-game set Saturday at Truist Park with a 4:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pirates vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Mitch Keller is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates. He is 2-5 with a 7.16 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 and 5.5 BB/9 over 32 2/3 IP through 8 starts.
Keller actually hasn’t been horrible this season, and he keeps the ball in the park. He has served up just four home runs across his 32 2/3 innings.
However, he also has issued 13 walks with just 19 strikeouts, including at least two free passes in each of his past four outings.
RHP Bryse Wilson is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. He is 1-2 with a 5.50 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 5.5 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 over 18 IP through 4 starts.
Wilson will be recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett to face the Bucs. He allowed two earned runs, six hits and no walks with five strikeouts across six innings in a no-decision against the Toronto Blue Jays May 11, his last appearance in the majors.
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Pirates at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:01 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Pirates +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Braves -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Pirates +1.5 (-115) | Braves -1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 9 (Over -120 | Under +100)
Prediction
Braves 7, Pirates 4
Money line (ML)
The Braves (-200) certainly found their hitting shoes on Friday, rolling up 20 runs, including two grand slams and seven total homers, rebounding with authority after a series-opening loss Thursday.
But Atlanta has just been too erratic this season to lay two times your potential return. AVOID, and look to the run line instead.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The BRAVES -1.5 (-105) are much more affordable on the run line at near even money. Hopefully, they didn’t blow all of their runs in Friday’s 20-run outburst.
Atlanta should get plenty of base runners against the walk-happy Keller, but Wilson coming up from the farm is a concern.
He was good last time out and is working for a more permanent role with Huascar Ynoa (hand) on the injured list, so perhaps Wilson shows out.
Over/Under (O/U)
The OVER 9 (-120) flexed a little muscle on Friday night, dropping a 20-burger on the Bucs.
Pittsburgh’s offense should be much better against Wilson, who has allowed north of five runs in his four showings in the majors to date.
And the Braves will certainly be able to touch up Keller, so double digits in total runs should easily be within reach.
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