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The Philadelphia Phillies (76-62) and San Diego Padres (66-74) have split the first 2 games of their 3-game series that wraps up Wednesday. They will get started at 4:10 p.m. ET at PETCO Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Phillies lead 4-2 after an 8-0 loss Tuesday
The Phillies have dropped 4 of their last 6 games after winning 5 in a row from Aug. 25-29. Philadelphia still sits atop the NL Wild Card standings with a 1 1/2 game lead over the 2nd NL Wild Card team, the Chicago Cubs.
The Padres have been a disappointment this season but come into this game having won 4 of their last 5 games. San Diego is still 6 1/2 games back of the final NL Wild Card.
Phillies at Padres projected starters
RHP Zach Wheeler vs. RHP Michael Wacha
Wheeler (10-6, 3.62 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 through 164 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 10 K in 7-5 road loss vs. Milwaukee Brewers Friday
- Has 2 consecutive starts with 10 K and 0 BB and has issued more than 1 free pass just once in his last 11 turns
- 2023 road stats: 6-4, 3.47 ERA (90 2/3 IP, 35 ER) over 15 starts
- Career vs. Padres: 3-1, 2.31 ERA (50 2/3 IP, 13 ER) with 10.7 K/9 in 8 starts.
- 2023 vs. Padres: No-decision, 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 7-6 home win on July 16
Wacha (11-2, 2.85 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 107 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 7-3 home win vs. San Francisco Giants Friday
- 2023 home stats: 8-2, 2.29 ERA (63 IP, 16 ER) with 8.7 K/9 in 63 IP over 11 starts
- Career vs. Phillies: 3-2, 4.98 ERA (43 1/3 IP, 24 ER) over 7 starts and 2 relief appearances, though he hasn’t faced them since 2020.
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Phillies at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:36 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Padres +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+140) | Padres +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Phillies at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Padres 3
Moneyline
Wheeler has been on a roll lately, posting a 2.73 ERA and 59/8 K/BB in 52 2/3 IP over his last 8 starts. Wacha continues to get the job done as well, though his skills don’t support the sub-3.00 ERA. Philadelphia ranks 9th in wRC+ vs. RHP while the Padres are 17th, and the Phillies also have the pitching edge so back the PHILLIES (-120).
Run line/Against the spread
Both starting pitchers have done a great job in keeping runs off the board and this sets up as a game that should be close throughout. However, taking the underdog Padres +1.5 (165) is risky given the way Wheeler has been pitching, as he’s capable of completely shutting the San Diego offense down.
PASS.
Over/Under
Wheeler’s skills have been among the best in the National League, and he boasts a 20/0 K/BB in his last 2 starts. Wacha has had a fine season himself, particularly when pitching at home, and he has allowed 2 ER or less in 13 of his last 14 starts. Both offenses will struggle to get things going in this one so side with the UNDER 8 (-110).
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