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The Philadelphia Phillies (75-61) and the San Diego Padres (65-73) open a 3-game series Monday at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Phillies lead 3-1
The Phillies dropped the first 2 games of the weekend series at the Milwaukee Brewers by a 7-5 score. It salvaged the series finale Sunday by a 4-2 score behind LHP Ranger Suarez, halting a 3-game losing skid. The Under result also ended a 5-0 run to the Over for Philadelphia.
The Padres dropped the series opener to the visiting San Francisco Giants Thursday by a 7-2 count, but they rebounded with 3 straight wins while outscoring San Francisco 17-4. The Under has cashed in the past 2 outings for San Diego after a 6-1-1 run to the Over.
Phillies at Padres projected starters
RHP Taijuan Walker vs. LHP Rich Hill
Walker (14-5, 4.05 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 142 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 6 K in a 6-4 home win vs. the Los Angeles Angels last Monday
- 2023 road splits: 7-3, 4.98 ERA (65 IP, 36 ER), 9 HR, .271 opponent batting average (OBA) in 12 starts
Hill (7-13, 5.26 ERA) makes his 27th start and 28th appearance. He has a 1.50 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 137 innings for the Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates.
- Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 5-4 road loss vs. St. Louis Cardinals Wednesday
- 2023 home splits: 4-7, 5.34 ERA (84 1/3 IP, 50 ER), 13 HR, .273 OBA in 16 starts
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Phillies at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:16 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Padres -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+150) | Padres +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Phillies at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 5, Padres 3
The PHILLIES (-105) are a tremendous value behind the 14-game winner Walker. While the Phils dropped 2 of 3 in Milwaukee over the weekend, Philadelphia is a solid 8-4 across the past 12 games overall.
The Padres have been playing better baseball lately, but they just cannot seem to solve the Phillies this season, losing 3 of 4 meetings.
Run line/Against the spread
The PHILLIES -1.5 (+150) are worth a roll of the dice on the run line.
Two of Philadelphia’s 3 victories against the Padres this season have been by 2 or more runs. Philadelphia is 5-3 on the run line in the past 8 games as a favorite. Back the road team.
Over/Under
UNDER 9 (-110) is the lean, but go very lightly.
The total has gone low at a 3-1-1 clip across the past 5 starts by Walker. However, the total went Over in each of the 4 previous meetings between these squads in Philadelphia July 14-16.
The Under has cashed in the past 2 games for the Padres, and the Under is 2-0-1 in the past 3 outings by the southpaw Hill.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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