The Philadelphia Phillies (11-11) and New York Mets (15-7) meet in the rubber match of their 3-game series on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball. First pitch is 7:08 p.m. ET at Citi Field. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillis vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The Mets hold a 3-2 season series lead, having taken 2 of 3 in Philly April 11-13 and splitting the first 2 games of this series.
The Phillies have won 5 of their 6. They swept a 4-game home series against the Colorado Rockies and beat the Mets 4-1 Saturday.
The Mets have lost 2 of their last 3. However, they’ve won every series they’ve played this season, losing just 1 game in each set.
Phillies at Mets projected starters
RHP Zach Eflin vs. RHP Max Scherzer
Eflin (1-1, 3.20 ERA) makes his fifth start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 4 BB and 15 K through 19 2/3 IP.
- Eflin went 6 innings in his last start and picked up his first win of 2022, allowing just 1 run on 2 hits.
- He started twice last season against the Mets with a 2.25 ERA (3 ER, 12 IP and no decisions.
Scherzer (3-0, 1.80 ERA) makes his fifth start. He has a 0.76 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 11.9 K/9 through 25 IP.
- After allowing 3 earned runs in his first start of the season, he has given up only 2 in his last 19 innings.
- He pitched 7 innings in each of his last 2 starts and struck out 10 in each game.
Phillies at Mets odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Phillies +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Mets -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-155) | Mets -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Phillies at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 4, Phillies 2
Money line
PASS.
It is right on the edge of being too pricy to bet the Mets (-180) and having it be worth your time.
The Phillies are 3-6 on the road and Scherzer has been just fantastic in his last 3 starts.
I like the Mets to win this game but don’t like the bet. PASS
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Run line/Against the spread
The Mets have won all 4 of Scherzer’s starts this season by at least 2 runs. Thirteen of their 15 wins have been by 2 or more runs.
Eight of the Phillies’ 11 losses are by more than 1 run.
The Mets are 4-1 ATS this season against the Phillies.
I like the Mets to win and to cover, which gives you the best value of the night. TAKE THE METS -1.5 (+125).
Over/Under
Three of the 5 games between the Mets and Phillies this season have had 5 or fewer runs.
Scherzer has not allowed more than 1 run in any of his last 3 starts.
I anticipate a low-scoring pitching duel between Eflin and Scherzer.
Take UNDER 6.5 (-107).
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