The Philadelphia Phillies (10-11) visit the New York Mets (15-6) Saturday for the second of their 3-game set at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
New York starting pitcher Tylor Megill and four Mets relievers combined to a throw a no-hitter in New York’s 3-0 series-opening victory over Philly Friday.
Season series: New York leads 3-1, outscoring Philly 18-11.
Phillies at Mets projected starters
RHP Kyle Gibson vs. RHP Taijuan Walker
Gibson (2-1, 3.47 ERA) beat the Rockies 8-2 Monday, throwing 5 2/3 IP, allowing 2 ER on 3 H, 2 HR and 2 BB with 4 K.
- 2021 vs. the Mets: 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 11 H, 5 BB and 12 K in 2 starts.
- vs. Mets on the current roster: 3.68 FIP with a .243 expected batting average (xBA), .296 expected wOBA (xwOBA), .339 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 16.3 K% and 87.0 mph exit velocity (EV) in 178 plate appearances (PA).
Walker (0-0, 0.00 ERA) has only pitched 2-scoreless innings before going on the IL with bursitis in his right shoulder that’s kept him sidelined the past couple of weeks. His only start came against Philly on April 11 where he struck out four Phillies, walked zero and allowed no hits.
- 2021 vs. the Phillies: 1-2 with a 3.15 ERA (34 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 0.93 WHIP and 8.7 K/9 over 7 starts.
- vs. Phillies on the current roster: 6.71 FIP with a .257 xBA, .362 xwOBA, .567 xSLG, 21.2 K% and 87.9 mph EV in 118 PA.
Phillies at Mets odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:50 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Mets -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-200) | Mets -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Phillies at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 6, Mets 4
Money line
BET the PHILLIES (+110) because I’m fading the Mets (-135) following their no-hitter since they used a bunch of relief pitchers and Walker will be on a pitch limit with it being his first start back from the IL.
Furthermore, Gibson’s pitching peripherals both to start the year and versus New York’s lineup are amazing whereas Walker’s advanced pitching numbers against this Phillies lineup are poor.
Also, the Phillies appear to be the contrarian side since most of the cash and bets placed are on the Mets, according to Tipico Sportsbook. A contrarian mindset is a profitable foundation in sports betting because the public loves to bet favorites and the house usually wins.
BET PHILLIES (+110).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Phillies +1.5 (-200) is too expensive and I’m not confident enough in Philadelphia to bet its -1.5 alternate RL at a plus-money payout. Also, the Mets -1.5 (+160) have clear edges in hitting and bullpen pitching, so New York could backdoor cover the RL versus Philly’s poor bullpen.
Over/Under
PASS.
Most of the action is on the Over but the total hasn’t budged off the opener so that leads me to think that the Under may be the sharp play. But, I’m fading New York’s pitching staff of its no-hitter-high, and Philly’s bullpen cannot be trusted.
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