The New York Mets (14-6) host the NL East rival Philadelphia Phillies (10-10) Friday for the start of a 3-game set at Citi Field with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Philly completed a 4-game home sweep of the Colorado Rockies Thursday after losing back-to-back 2-1 series to the visiting Milwaukee Brewers and at the Rockies last week.
New York has won all 6 series so far this year but had a 3-game winning streak snapped Thursday in a 10-5 loss at the St. Louis Cardinals, which featured a bench-clearing brouhaha.
Season series: New York leads 2-1, outscoring Philly 15-11.
Phillies at Mets projected starters
RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Tylor Megill
Nola (1-2, 3.74 ERA) pitched a 7-inning. scoreless gem in Philly’s 1-0 loss Sunday night in Milwaukee, striking out 9 with just 1 H and 1 BB.
- 2022 vs. the Mets: Lost 9-6 at home behind 3 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 5 K April 13.
- vs. Mets on the current roster: 3.26 FIP with a .246 expected batting average (xBA), .320 expected wOBA (xwOBA), .379 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 29.3 K% and 88.1 mph exit velocity (EV) in 246 plate appearances (PA).
Megill (3-0, 2.35 ERA) beat the Arizona Diamondbacks Sunday 6-2, working 6 2/3 IP with 2 ER on 5 H and 1 BB with 7 K.
- 2021 vs. the Phillies: Win 2-0 in 5 1/3 IP with 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 5 K at Philly April 12.
- vs. Phillies on the current roster: 3.36 FIP with a .333 xBA, .397 xwOBA, .609 xSLG, 23.1 K% and 94.0 mph EV in 26 PA.
Phillies at Mets odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:50 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Phillies +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Mets -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-210) | Mets -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)
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Phillies at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 4, Phillies 2
Money line
BET METS (-130).
They have a clear edge in two of the three most important phases of baseball (relief pitching and hitting) and their ML price is cheap because Nola might be a tad overrated. There is value in fading Nola coming off an impressive start on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball.
New York’s lineup has the best WAR in the MLB (per FanGraphs) and ranks in the top 3 of wRC+, wOBA and BB/K versus right-handed pitching, better than the Phillies in each metric.
New York’s bullpen ranks first in xFIP, second in WAR and fifth in home runs allowed per 9 innings. Philly’s bullpen is 18th in WAR and 19th in xFIP.
BET 1 UNIT ON METS (-130).
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Run line/Against the spread
SPRINKLE on the METS -1.5 (+170) because it’s a fat payout, New York is 4-2 RL as a home favorite and New York’s lineup should rake Philly’s below-average bullpen.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 6.5 (+110) only because this is a “sharp” total.
There’s more money on the Under, while more bets have been placed on the Over (per Pregame.com), which indicates the professionals are hitting the Under.
Also, Phillies-Mets is 1-7-2 O/U in their last 10 meetings, the weather forecast is predicting roughly 12 mph winds blowing in from left-center field and Citi Field is a pitcher-friendly ballpark.
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