The Philadelphia Phillies (74-72) and New York Mets (72-75) tangle Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET as they open a three-game NL East series at Citi Field. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Zack Wheeler is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 13-9 with a 2.86 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, and 1.9 BB/9 through 195 1/3 IP over 29 starts.
- Owns a 2.15 ERA over four starts against New York this season. Has held current Mets batters to a .620 aggregate OPS and .071 isolated power.
- Has bounced back from a shaky August (4.81 ERA) by allowing just 1 ER over two starts this month. Even his subpar August included a 9-inning shutout against these Mets Aug. 8.
RHP Taijuan Walker is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets. He is 7-9 with a 4.29 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 through 144 2/3 IP spanning 26 starts and a relief outing.
- Has held current Phils bats to a .559 OPS. Owns a 3.80 ERA against Philadelphia this season.
- Has been pounded by hard contact in posting a 7.16 ERA over his last three starts. Coughed up 6 home runs over 16 1/3 in that stretch.
- Owns a 3.55 ERA and 1.07 WHIP at Citi Field this season.
Phillies at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Mets +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+130) | Mets +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)
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Prediction
Mets 5, Phillies 4
Money line (ML)
The Phillies are coming off back-to-back wins over the Chicago Cubs but a 3-3 homestand. They are 5-8 over their last 13 games and Philadelphia hurlers have compiled a 5.37 ERA over that stretch.
The Mets have also struggled on the mound of late. New York is 4-8 with a 4.92 ERA over its last dozen games and the Mets head into this series off three straight losses to the St. Louis Cardinals.
Performance in one-run games and a couple other metrics around the margins peg the Phillies as being slightly overvalued with their record and the Mets as slightly undervalued with theirs.
Walker’s history against Philadelphia adds to the mix, and the result is a lean on the METS (+110).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS, although any line movement toward -150 makes a Mets +1.5 ticket more palatable.
Over/Under (O/U)
There is enough gray area in Wheeler’s recent slump and Walker’s current one that when added to sloppy bullpen performances of late for both sides, makes for SOLID LEAN ON THE OVER 7.5 (-102).
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