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The Milwaukee Brewers (74-59) welcome the Philadelphia Phillies (74-59) to American Family Field Friday to open a 3-game set. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Brewers lead 2-1
The Phillies are 5-1 over their last 6 games, losing 10-8 to the Los Angeles Angels Wednesday as they failed to complete the 3-game sweep. Philadelphia is 33-33 on the road this season and is 14 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East, but it holds the top NL Wild Card spot.
The Brewers have cooled off over their last 2 games but have been on fire over the last few weeks. Milwaukee is 9-2 over its last 11 contests but did lose 2 of 3 to the Chicago Cubs from Monday to Wednesday, including a 3-2 defeat in the finale. Milwaukee is 38-27 at home this season and has a 3-game lead atop the NL Central.
Phillies at Brewers projected starters
RHP Zach Wheeler vs. RHP Freddy Peralta
Wheeler (10-6, 3.59 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 through 158 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 10 K in 12-1 home win vs. St. Louis Cardinals Saturday
- 2023 away stats: 6-4, 3.40 ERA in 84 2/3 IP in 14 starts
Peralta (11-8, 3.95 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 through 139 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 9 K in 5-4 home win vs. San Diego Padres Saturday
- 2023 home stats: 6-4, 3.76 ERA in 76 2/3 IP in 14 starts
Phillies at Brewers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:30 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Brewers -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+145) | Brewers +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Phillies at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 4, Phillies 2
Moneyline
BET BREWERS (-105).
Milwaukee is the 7th-best team in the MLB at home, posting a 38-27 record at American Family Field. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is just .500 on the road. Both teams will have an ace on the mound, so there’s not a major pitching advantage for either.
The Brewers are 9-10 as home underdogs which ranks 12th-best in the league and is 9-2 over their last 11 games. Wheeler has given up 3 or more earned runs in 2 of his last 4 starts and could struggle against a high-octane Brewers offense.
Milwaukee at home for this value is worth a play.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There’s not a ton of value here. The Phillies with Wheeler on the mound are a strong side, but backing them to beat the Brewers by multiple runs doesn’t pose a smart risk.
Similarly, the Brewers +1.5 (-175) is also is not a wise play, there’s just not enough value.
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Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-105).
Aces are on the mound and should put on a show. Wheeler has given up 1 or 2 earned runs in 6 or more innings pitched in 5 of his last 7 starts. Philadelphia is 58-64-11 O/U this season and has gone Under in 2 of Wheeler’s last 3 starts.
Milwaukee is 59-69-5 O/U, so both teams have been better at hitting the Under this season. The Brewers have gone Under in 3 straight games. Take UNDER 7.5 (-105).
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