The Philadelphia Phillies (58-49) and Miami Marlins (57-51) meet Wednesday for the 3rd game of their 4-game series at loanDepot park. First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: tied 4-4
Miami has lost 3-1 Tuesday and 4-2 Monday, and is just 4-12 so far in the 2nd half. The Marlins are just 2-for-17 with runners in scoring position in this series.
The Phillies moved past Miami and into 2nd place in the NL East standings with Monday’s series-opening victory. Philadelphia has been streaky since the break but appears to be on an upswing now, going 5-2 since July 25.
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Phillies at Marlins projected starters
RHP Zack Wheeler vs. LHP Braxton Garrett
Wheeler (8-5, 3.74 ERA) is making his 22nd start of the 2023 season. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 through 125 IP.
- Last start: win, 6 2/3 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 11 K in 2-1 road win over Pittsburgh Pirates Friday
- 2023 road stats: 6-3, 3.48 ERA in 64 2/3 IP across 11 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Marlins: 2-1, 5.33 ERA in 27 IP (2021-23)
- 2.18 ERA and 0.73 WHIP across 3 starts since the All-Star break
Garrett (5-3, 4.08 ERA) is making his 21st start and 22nd appearance. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 through 106 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 5 H 2 R (1 ER), 1 BB, 6 K in 6-5 home win vs. Detroit Tigers Friday
- 2023 home stats: 2-2, 5.40 ERA in 55 IP across 10 starts and 1 relief appearance
- Career vs. Phillies: 2-1, 4.26 ERA in 19 IP (2020-23)
- Has registered a 5.92 ERA across 24 1/3 IP over 5 July starts
Phillies at Marlins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:15 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Phillies -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Marlins +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+135) | Marlins +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Phillies at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Marlins 2
Moneyline
Peg this one as a close, low-scoring contest. No lean on the current prices: PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
The Phils -1.5 (+135) are a lean in a vacuum on pricing, but both teams play a lot of close games. There are no hero points for playing with the hurdle. PASS.
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Over/Under
Philadelphia games have cashed the Under in 48 of the club’s last 90 games and profitably so (+12.85 Units, 13% ROI). Miami has hit its team total Under in 10 of its last 13 games (+6.64 Units, 44% ROI).
Both starters have season numbers that indicate a bit of bloat in their ERAs. In particular, Garrett’s 5.40 ERA at home is somewhat on the loose due to a .345 batting average on balls in play in those starts.
Other parts of the market have had this game at an even 7 runs for much of the betting ramp-up to this contest. There is some slight value to the UNDER 7.5 (-120).
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