The Philadelphia Phillies (56-49) and the Miami Marlins (57-49) open a 4-game series Monday. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Marlins lead 4-2
The Phillies enter this key series just a half-game behind the Marlins for 2nd place in the NL East. Philadelphia lost the final 2 games of a 3-game series at the Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend, allowing 13 total runs in the 2 setbacks. The Over cashed in both of those outings.
The Marlins took 2 of 3 games from the Detroit Tigers at home over the weekend. Miami has won 3 of its last 4 games while hitting the Over in each of those victories.
The Marlins took 2 of 3 games from July 7-9 the last time these teams faced each other in South Florida with the Over going 2-0-1 in that series.
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Phillies at Marlins projected starters
RHP Taijuan Walker vs. RHP Edward Cabrera
Walker (11-4, 4.06 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 through 113 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 4 K in a 4-3 home win vs. the Baltimore Orioles Tuesday
- 2023 road splits: 6-3, 5.25 ERA (58 1/3 IP, 34 ER – 8 HR), .274 opponent batting average (OBA) in 11 starts
Cabrera (5-6, 4.74 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 5.6 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 through 74 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 2 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 0 K in a 4-1 road loss vs. the Tampa Bay Rays Tuesday
- 2023 home splits: 5-0, 2.61 ERA (31 IP, 9 ER – 3 HR), .204 OBA in 6 starts
- 2023 vs. Philadelphia: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 4 K in a 3-2 road win on April 12
Phillies at Marlins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:21 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Marlins -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+145) | Marlins +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Phillies at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 4, Phillies 3
Moneyline
The MARLINS (-105) are worth a look as short ‘dogs at home.
Miami has picked up 4 wins in 6 tries against Philadelphia this year, one of many reasons “Everyone is doin’ the Fish” in South Florida this season. The Marlins have picked up 3 wins in the past 4 home games and are 5-3 in the past 8 outings at loanDepot park — a stretch that includes wins in the final 2 games of a series vs. Philadelphia in early July.
Cabrera is also unbeaten in 5 decisions across 6 home starts, and he has held the opposition to a .204 batting average. Back the short ‘dogs with one of their best pitchers at home.
Run line/Against the spread
The MARLINS +1.5 (-175) aren’t priced out of line if you require a little insurance and you just can’t play them straight up.
Miami is 3-7 in its last 10 games as an underdog on the run line, but 2 of those covers are in the most recent series against Philadelphia, including a straight-up 5-3 win as a -109 underdog on July 8.
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Over/Under
UNDER 8.5 (-115) is the lean in the series opener.
While the Over is 3-1 in the past 4 games overall for the Marlins, the Under has cashed in 4 of the past 5 starts by Cabrera. The Under is also 3-0 in Cabrera’s past 3 starts at home.
The Over is also 3-1 in the past 4 games overall for the Phillies, but the Under has connected in each of the past 2 starts by Walker and is 9-2-1 across the right-hander’s past 12 assignments.
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