The Philadelphia Phillies (21-18) kick off a seven-game series against the Miami Marlins (19-19) that will play out over the next five days. Thursday’s First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET at Marlins Park. We analyze the Phillies-Marlins betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
Phillies at Marlins: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Jake Arrieta vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara
Arrieta rebounded from his worst start of the season with perhaps his best start Friday. He allowed two earned runs against the Mets and struck out seven batters, but he’ll carry a 5.67 ERA into Thursday’s contest.
- He has made seven career starts at Marlins Park, where he has put up a 3.40 ERA across 45 innings, with 44 strikeouts and only 10 walks.
- This marks the fifth straight season in which Arrieta’s ERA has risen since he posted an elite 1.77 mark in 2015. Meanwhile, his K% and swinging strike rates are on opposite trajectories, having declined in each of those years.
Alcantara has been limited to just three starts this season after landing on the COVID-19 list in late July. He boasts a 3.78 ERA through 16 2/3 innings, with 17 strikeouts, eight of which came in his last outing against the Tampa Bay Rays.
- He has made 19 career starts at Marlins Park, where he owns a 4.20 ERA and 7.3 K/9.
- Alcantara has been helped by a .214 BABIP but has also shown some encouraging signs. His velocity is up more than a full tick from last season, and he has struck out 24.3% of batters faced, a big step up from his 18.0% mark from 2019.
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Phillies at Marlins: Key injuries
Get the latest injury news here.
Phillies
- OF Jay Bruce (quadriceps) out
- OF Roman Quinn (concussion) out
- 2B Scott Kingery (back) out
Marlins
- 2B Jon Berti (finger) questionable
- OF Harold Ramirez (hamstring) out
- C Francisco Cervelli (concussion) out
- OF Magneuris Sierra (hamstring) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Phillies at Marlins: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Marlins 6, Phillies 4
Moneyline (ML)
- Phillies (-112)
- Marlins (+100)
Alcantara was outstanding in his last start and gives Miami the clear pitching edge this evening. The Philadelphia offense poses a tough test, but they have been better at home (5.6 runs per game, .816 OPS) than on the road (4.9, .732), and rank 17th in wRC+ vs right-handed pitching.
The Marlins have scored 17 runs in their last two games, and face another marginal starter in this one. Look for the MARLINS (+100) to come out on top.
New to sports betting? A winning $10 bet on the Marlins would return a profit of $10. If taking the Phillies, you would need to bet $11.20 in order to net a $10 profit.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
- Phillies -1.5 (+135)
- Marlins +1.5 (-162)
There doesn’t seem to be much value in the lines listed above. But the current version of Arrieta is prone to blowups, and as Alcantara showed last time out, he can be dominant at times. Therefore, taking the MARLINS -2.5 (+280) on the alternate line may be worth a shot.
Over/Under (O/U)
- Over 9 (-110)
- Under 9 (-110)
Arrieta is having a rough season, as are the bullpens of both teams. Philadelphia’s relief corps owns a league-worst 7.24 ERA, while Miami’s relievers have the 5th-worst ERA, the lowest K/9, and surrendered 22 runs just last night. The OVER 9 (-110) looks like the side to take on this total.
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