The Philadelphia Phillies (80-63) take on the Atlanta Braves (88-55) Friday in the opener of a 3-game set at Truist Park. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Tied 6-6
The Phillies had a 5-game winning streak snapped Thursday with a 5-3 loss at the Miami Marlins. They’re 7-3 in their last 10 games and have a 2 1/2-game lead over the San Diego Padres for the 2nd NL wild-card spot and 8 games behind Atlanta for the top spot.
Atlanta has cooled finally as it has dropped 4 of 5 games. The Braves have fallen 1 game behind the New York Mets for 1st place in the NL East. They’re still 21-9 over the last 30 games despite the skid. Atlanta is 32-15 against left-handed starters, which it’ll face Friday.
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Phillies at Braves projected starters
LHP Ranger Suarez vs. LHP Max Fried
Suarez (9-5, 3.62 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 134 1/3 IP.
- 3 starts against Atlanta this year: 0-2, 5.06 ERA, 16 IP, 16 H, 9 ER, 7 BB and 15 K
- Could be wearing down with a 5.40 ERA over his last 4 starts
Fried (13-6, 2.50 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 169 1/3 IP.
- 2 starts against Phillies this year: 0-0, 3.75 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 9.8 K/9
- Has a 1.84 ERA over his last 7 GS
Phillies at Braves odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:55 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Phillies +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Braves -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-140) | Braves -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 5, Phillies 4
Money line
Fried has been too good of late, and he’ll neutralize the Phillies’ left-handed bats. Suarez hasn’t been good of late nor against Atlanta. OF Bryce Harper is hitting .180 with 2 homers in 39 at-bats this month and it’s in the bag if Fried continues to keep him under wraps.
The BRAVES FIRST 5 INNINGS (-125) is at a suitable price to take.
Run line/Against the spread
I’m leaning toward the Phillies here. They’re 37-31 on the RL on the road and are playing a good brand of baseball. I just think Atlanta has more on the pitching side. LEAN PHILLIES +1.5 (-140).
Over/Under
The wind is blowing in from right-center field at 6 mph on a 79-degree day. Both teams are 5-5 O/U over the last 10. The Over has hit in Suarez’s last 4 starts. The Over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these teams and 13-6 in the last 19 meetings in Atlanta. The OVER 7.5 (-112) sneaks by.
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