The Philadelphia Phillies (5-2) and Atlanta Braves (3-4) tangle in the middle contest of their three-game set at Truist Park on Saturday evening. Game 2 is slated for a 7:20 p.m. ET start time. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Zach Eflin is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. Last season, Eflin went 4-2 with a 3.97 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 10.7 K/9, and 2.3 BB/9 in 59 IP over 10 starts and one relief outing. He logged a tremendous start against Atlanta in his April 4 debut; he allowed 1 earned run over 7 innings with 8 strikeouts.
Over his career, Eflin has been a fast starter with a .641 OPS allowed in March/April, but he has been a shaky option in road games with a .832 OPS allowed.
RHP Ian Anderson is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. Anderson came up in late August of last year and went 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 11.4 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 across 32 1/3 IP over six turns in the Atlanta rotation. He opened his 2021 season with a 5-inning start against the Phillies April 4, and allowed 1 earned run with 7 strikeouts.
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Phillies at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Braves -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-165) | Braves -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Braves 5, Phillies 4
Money line (ML)
The Braves went into this series ready for a bounce toward more production on offense. A club that was nearly 100 points better in OPS at home last season (.797 road OPS vs. .868 home OPS) got that boost Friday when the Braves downed the Phils 8-1.
Atlanta has good numbers against Eflin (.777 OPS, .226 isolated power); look for the home half of their 2021 looks against him to be better.
BACK ATLANTA (-140).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
SKIP THE RUN LINE PLAY, except for perhaps a partial-unit add-on flyer to leverage the above play on the Braves. ATLANTA -1.5 (+140) would fit that purpose; a +145 tag or better would make for solid value.
Over/Under (O/U)
Atlanta at home, upside value in the Braves offense getting off to a slow start not fully supported by analytics and both sides getting a second bite at the apple against starters (and relievers) they saw just a week ago.
It all adds up to the OVER 8 (-115) being a nice play.
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